Big 12 Football Coaching Tiers: Golden boys & hot seats

The Big 12 just released their all-conference preseason team and will soon release the preseason Big 12 rankings, so in honor of "list season" I figured it was time to take a crack at ranking the football coaches in the new 14-team Big 12, as well as putting them in the tiers they belong to. Tip of the cap to our old friend Alec Busse who recently did this on Big Ten coaches for The Hoosier.

There are four tiers that the coaches will be grouped into, with the "hot seat" tier being self-explanatory. Any coach in this tier has to do something strong in 2023 or he will not be coaching in the Big 12 come 2024. In the "something to prove" category, these are coaches that are likely to have job security beyond this year, but if something disastrous happens it isn't out of the realm of possibility that they are looking for a new job next year as well.

Then the final two tiers are for the coaches who have multi-year job security and currently have their programs in really good spots. "Just fine" coaches are in no fear of losing their job and have a lot going for them, but have room to grow. The "golden boys" are in a honeymoon phase with their current school and are still ascending at a rapid pace with a growing ceiling. Away we go!

It is a one-man show in the hot seat category, so congrats to Neal Brown! He easily could have been fired after a poor 2022 for the Mountaineers, but he got a chance to come back for one more season in Morgantown.

Brown and Chris Klieman are the last two men standing from the 2019 Big 12 rookie class of coaches (Les Miles and Matt Wells), but Brown has only peaked at six wins in a season at West Virginia, with his only winning season being the 2020 COVID year when he went 6-4. Last season the Mountaineers went 5-7 and had to replace JT Daniels at quarterback.

A few other key factors go against Brown's chances of turning things around like West Virginia having a brand new athletic director in Wren Baker who will be chomping at the bit to get "his guy" in the position, as well as a non-conference schedule that features two Power 5 opponents on it.

Expect another nervous and sweaty podium performance from Brown at Big 12 Media Days next week for the second year in a row.

Scott Satterfield is new to Cincinnati and new to the Big 12, as he tries to take over for Luke Fickell who would have been destined for the "golden boy" tier if he had not taken the Wisconsin job.

Fickell's departure changes the calculus on where Cincinnati might factor into the new Big 12 early on, but Satterfield was hired away from Louisville and has some strong seasons from his time at Appalachian State, but he will have to get the Bearcats competitively quickly or he may not get much time in Cincinnati. Satterfield was 11-15 in ACC play in his last three seasons with the Cardinals.

2022 was a disastrous first year as a head coach for Brent Venables. The Sooners were a top-ten team to start the season and quickly found out that they weren't. Venables was in charge of the first Oklahoma team to not win at least seven games since John Blake only won five games in 1998, which was also the last season before 2022 that the Sooners had a losing record.

After a lengthy and successful career as a defensive coordinator, Venables needs to prove he can be a successful head coach in a hurry before Oklahoma makes the move to the SEC. Another six-win or less season in 2023 could spell serious trouble for Venables' job security.

The new coaches to the league are in tough spots as they try to bring talent from a slightly lower level to compete with the third toughest Power 5 league from 2022. Houston's Dana Holgorsen might have a slight advantage, having been in the league with West Virginia previously, and he has been on a good path with the Cougars over the last two years after a poor start to his time at Houston.

Arguments could be made that Kalani Sitake is too low on this list and I would listen to them. But he and BYU are in a weird spot as they enter a brand new conference that holds a lot of unknowns for the Cougars. I think he can handle it, but it might take a year or two for BYU to ascend higher in the conference standings.

Mike Gundy fell like a rock in where he ranks amongst Big 12 coaches after the stretch he has had the last few seasons. Controversy followed him at every turn during 2020 and COVID, and in 2022 the talent cracks started to shine through. He also lost his defensive coordinator after the 2021 season and a ton of players that made the Cowboys' defense one of the best in the Big 12. In 2023 their answer at quarterback is Alan Bowman, which doesn't seem like the greatest of moves. There are more questions than ever in Stillwater and another down season after going 7-6 but losing five of their last six could put Gundy, a former "golden boy," in a lower tier.

Two seasons ago Dave Aranda won the Big 12 and everything was looking great for the Bears, who were then the preseason Big 12 pick last season. But similar to Oklahoma State, the other 2021 title game participant in the Big 12, 2022 fell apart down the stretch for Baylor. They lost their last four games of the season and only beat one team with a winning record all year (Texas Tech).

Aranda has the same quarterback questions that Oklahoma State has, as Blake Shapen didn't put together the year that some expected in 2022. Another difference last year for Baylor was not having Joey McGuire on the staff, who had taken the job at Texas Tech. Aranda has to prove that two seven loss seasons in his first three years at Baylor are not the norm and he can be at the top of the league without the dynamite recruiter and program builder that McGuire appears to be.

I am a major Steve Sarkisian doubter. He was outdone in his last two stops as a head coach at Washington and USC by the coach that followed him up, he self-destructed at his last head coaching job and hasn't been overly impressive in his first two seasons in Austin.

I don't think Sarkisian is a bad coach, but he has a lot to do to prove that he deserves to be higher on this list and also that he has Texas ready to compete when they join the SEC next season. The best way to start is by playing for a Big 12 title, something the Horns haven't won since 2009 and it shouldn't be too hard, because Texas has the most talent in the league, on paper, yet again.

For Sarkisian, my stance boils down to this: I would rather have the guy that turned $0 into $1 million than the guy that turned $1 million into $100 million.

If we asked an Iowa State fan where Matt Campbell belonged, he would be a "golden boy." There is no denying what Campbell has pulled off at Iowa State is impressive, three seasons with at least eight wins and he has had the Cyclones bowl eligible every year except for his first and the most recent in 2022.

Campbell put together an elite defense last season, but the offense for Iowa State struggled mightily. He also needs to prove that the success seen in 2020 of winning a Fiesta Bowl and playing for the Big 12 title can come in a non-pandemic-inflicted season. There should be no reason to think Campbell is in trouble, but there are some minor problems to get fixed up in Ames as Campbell enters year eight at the helm.

For as low as I might be on some of the other coaches on this list, I am equally as high on Gus Malzahn.

Malzahn took over a job that was competing in New Year's Six games under multiple coaches in the American and Malzahn brings his own experience of coaching in the SEC and appearing in a national championship. UCF is easily the most "ready to win now" team of the new four in the Big 12 and I expect the Knights to finish in the top half for 2023.

Joey McGuire would be the hottest commodity in the Big 12 if it wasn't for Lance Leipold at Kansas. McGuire stepped in and won eight games immediately in Lubbock, his staff has connected amazingly with the Red Raider fans and they are dominating the recruiting trail right now, with top 30 classes in 2023 and currently in 2024.

McGuire has the Red Raiders in position to be a surprise team and it wouldn't be shocking if they are in Arlington come December in the next two years.

There is little doubt that Lance Leipold deserves to be in this tier, it can be debated where he exactly fits in, but anyone that can take a decade-long dumpster fire to six wins and strong momentum recruiting in less than three years deserves serious props.

Leipold got to Kansas after spring practice in 2021, but immediately got the Jayhawks in a more competitive position. In 2022 he took Kansas back to a bowl game for the first time since 2008, he even did after losing his All-Big 12 starting quarterback for a month of the season. Leipold has the right approach to building a program and the biggest compliment you could give to Kansas was that he was the most competent hire they had made since Mark Mangino.

Next up for Leipold is getting the Jayhawks over .500 and more seriously competing in the Big 12 after going just 3-6 in 2022's conference schedule. Kansas also lost six of their last seven games and only got to bowl eligibility by beating a wounded Oklahoma State. None of that should take away from what Leipold has done at Kansas, but it sets the stage that 2023 might be more of a continuous line season than a continued ascent.

The Big 12 has some really good coaches right now and strong evidence is Chris Klieman being just number two on this list. He is the reigning Big 12 Championship-winning coach and keeps getting a contract extension and raises every few seasons.

Klieman has won at least eight games in three of his four seasons at K-State, with only the 2020 COVID year being a dud. He also just gave K-State the No. 34 recruiting class in 2023 and is dominating recruiting in the state of Kansas. There is great momentum for the Wildcats and the only thing left for Klieman to prove is that he can keep the momentum going and win another Big 12 Championship after the first one in 2022.

Year one was a dream for Sonny Dykes at TCU, as he riff rammed and bah zoo'd his way through the Big 12, going 12-0 and reaching No. 3 in the College Football Playoff rankings. He took Max Duggan from dangerous disaster to Heisman finalist and possibly the best player in college football last season.

The Frogs finished the year with three major games, losing in overtime to K-State in the Big 12 Championship, but bouncing back and beating Michigan in the Fiesta Bowl to advance to the CFP National Championship, becoming the first Big 12 team to accomplish that feat. I don't care about the score of that game, it should take nothing away from what Dykes and TCU did last season.

The momentum continued in 2023 recruiting, with the Frogs finishing No. 21 in the country. There may be a slight dip in 2023 after losing a number of major contributors to the NFL Draft, but TCU is primed under Dykes to be one of the key players for years to come in the new Big 12.