Big 12 Picks ATS - Week 11
| Staff | W-L | Last Week | GB |
|---|---|---|---|
|
Mason |
34-20-2 |
2-3 |
-- |
|
Gabe |
32-22-2 |
3-2 |
2 |
|
Alec |
29-25-2 |
2-3 |
5 |
Oklahoma at West Virginia +8, 11:00 AM FS1
Mason: West Virginia looks like a broken team, and I would rather take a team not playing their best than a broken team. Oklahoma will have Dillon Gabriel and as long as he plays the entire game, they shouldn't have any problems with the Mountaineers whose only conference win came when they knocked Blake Shapen out early.
The Pick: Oklahoma -8
Alec: I'm really low on each of these teams, and while West Virginia is a tough place to play I think the Sooners get back on the winning track despite a tough environment to get a win in. This is going to be a shootout with each team scoring at least 35 points and maybe more. Take the over before taking one of these teams to cover.
The Pick: West Virginia +8
Gabe: West Virginia and Oklahoma both can’t get any stops and as a whole West Virginia’s offense is much stronger when they are at home. Oklahoma is slightly worse (3-6) than West Virginia (4-5) against the spread this season and I think a historically bad Sooners run defense can make an average Mountaineers run offense (60th in the nation) have success.
The Pick: West Virginia +8
Iowa State at Oklahoma State +1, 2:30 ESPNU
Mason: The Cyclones had an offensive explosion late last week to put distance between themselves and West Virginia. It is a step in the right direction, and Oklahoma State is a down team right now. But after the first two possessions at Kansas, the Cowboy offense settled down a little bit and I think returning home is a big boost. I am going to go with the Cowboys in a low-scoring game.
The Pick: Oklahoma State +1
Alec: Oklahoma State being an underdog in this game tells who Vegas thinks is going to be the starting quarterback for the Cowboys -- not Spencer Sanders. Still, I think Iowa State is actually a good matchup for Oklahoma State. This is a tough one to pick, but I'll side with Okie State.
The Pick: Oklahoma State +1
Gabe: I get that Oklahoma State has struggled in recent weeks and got drubbed by both Kansas State and Kansas, but this line makes no sense. It also is another example of the Iowa State Cyclones in a spread that ranges between + or -3.5, a situation that Matt Campbell has been awful in. I’ll take the Cowboys despite the injury issues and quarterback questions.
The Pick: Oklahoma State +1
Kansas at Texas Tech -3.5, 6:00 PM ESPN+
Mason: I would like to not have to choose Kansas in this game, but they are the more reliable option than Texas Tech currently. I really want to like the Red Raiders, but just when you give them credit, they rip your heart out. Kansas is tied with K-State for being the second-best team in the conference with forcing interceptions, and Texas Tech has three quarterbacks who love to throw them.
The Pick: Kansas +3.5
Alec: Texas Tech continues to be one of the most difficult teams to project on a weekly basis. You don't know what you're going to get from the Red Raiders every week offensively, and that makes it hard to understand them. This week, I think they'll score some good points. But I'll take the Jayhawks.
The Pick: Kansas +3.5
Gabe: Sportsbook’s willingness to give Kansas points (and the hook) in spots like this has been confusing all season long. Given how well Jason Bean played last weekend against Oklahoma State I would guess that Lance Leipold will just roll with him and make sure that Jalon Daniels is completely healthy before he returns. Kansas is 7-1-1 against the spread this season and features three outright wins as an underdog. I think the Jayhawks will win again Saturday.
The Pick: Kansas +3.5
#19 K-State at Baylor -2.5, 6:00 PM FS1
Mason's Pick: K-State +2.5
Alec's Pick: K-State +2.5
Gabe's Pick: K-State +2.5
#4 TCU at #18 Texas -7.5, 6:30 PM ABC
Mason: Nearly a decade after being on the outside looking in of the College Football Playoff the Horned Frogs are back in the four spot in the final weeks of the regular season, the pressure is on them. Alec and I discussed this in the pregame podcast this week, but Texas loves to blow second-half leads and TCU likes to come back from them. As much as I think Texas is the more talented team, I think I ride with the trends of the two teams.
The Pick: TCU +7.5
Alec: I think this game is going to be a lot of fun. I expect Texas to get out to a big lead, and then see TCU come back in the second half just like they have for about a month now. A lot of people around the country seem to be on Texas to win this week, and I think I'll join them -- but not confident enough to moneyline the Longhorns.
The Pick: TCU +7.5
Gabe: It feels like the College Football Playoff committee put in the wrong formula and got the right answer this week. The Horned Frogs wound up as the No. 4 team in the nation in the committee's second rankings, after being lower than anticipated the first time around. Now, it feels like the Big 12 Conspiracy Theorist in me thinks it was done to prop up the inevitable Texas win that is coming. According to OddsShark, 75 percent of the bets are on TCU in this game, so I’ll fade the public and anticipate a big Texas win.
The Pick: Texas -7.5