Prediction & Preview: Kansas State at Kansas

It's time for a full Preview & Prediction for tonight's game between rivals Kansas State and Kansas in Lawrence.

Dillons Sunflower Showdown

Tuesday, January 21, 2020 >> 6:01 p.m., CT >> Allen Fieldhouse (16,300) >> Lawrence, Kan.

RIVALRY GAME

Dillons Sunflower Showdown

K-State and Kansas will meet for the 292nd time on Tuesday in a rivalry that dates to 1907. It is the sixth-most played rivalry and eighth-most played in NCAA Division I history.

TELEVISION

ESPN2

Jon Sciambi (play-by-play)Fran Fraschilla (analyst)Andy Jacobson (producer)

RADIO

K-State Sports Network

Flagships: // KMAN 1350 & WIBW 580

Online: TuneIn.com [free] / www.kstatesports.com/watch [free]

Satellite Radio: XM 383 / Internet 973

Wyatt Thompson (play-by-play)Stan Weber (analyst)

PROJECTED STARTING LINEUP

Kansas State (8-9)

G: #4 David Sloan

G: #2 Cartier Diarra

G/F: #20 Xavier Sneed

F: #34 Levi Stockard III

F: #14 Makol Mawien

Kansas (14-3)

G: #1 Devon Dotson

G: #0 Marcus Garrett

G: #30 Ochai Agbaji

F: #33 David McCormack

C: #35 Udoka Azubuike

OPENING TIP

Kansas State (8-9, 1-4 Big 12) renews one of the oldest college basketball rivalries on Tuesday night, as the Wildcats travel to Lawrence, Kan., to take on No. 3/3 Kansas (14-3, 4-1 Big 12) in the 292nd Dillons Sunflower Showdown at Allen Fieldhouse. The Jayhawks will be the third consecutive Top 25 opponent for K-State, following home matchups with No. 23/23 Texas Tech (63-77) and No. 12/13 West Virginia (84-68) last week. Tuesday’s game will tip at 6:01 p.m., CT on ESPN2 with Jon Sciambi (play-by-play) and Fran Fraschilla (analyst) on the call.

-Provided by K-State Athletics Communications

K-State comes into this year's first Sunflower Showdown coming off of a significant win over West Virginia and will once again be facing the No. 1 efficiency defense in the country. Kansas moved up to take over thetop spot after this weekend and also is the current No. 1 team in the country in Kenpom's metric.

KU's defensive make up is a bit different than the Mountaineers. Like WVU, the Jayhawks have a top 15 eFG% defense and are very good against twos and threes. However, they don't force turnovers at nearly the same rate and are excellent at not fouling and sending opponents to the free-throw line, with the 14th lowest FT rate allowed. They are also solid on the the defensive glass, ranking No. 60.

The KU offense is currently just outside the Top 10 in efficiency and right at No. 10 in eFG%. They are No. 11 on twos and a solid No. 76 on threes, though they have dropped their rate of taking threes down to the more traditional Bill Self profile of around 30%. KU is also solid at hitting the offensive glass and getting to the FT line, but the Jayhawks' biggest weakness (turnovers) plays into K-State's defensive strength. As you can see from the chart, this is the only category that K-State has an advantage in based on the advanced numbers.

This year's KU squad doesn't feature the depth of Top 100 talent of a normal Self squad, though they still have three key players that were top 30, and four of their starters were top 50.

The Jayhawks are led by Devon Dotson, who is now an experienced lead guard and perhaps the best perimeter player in the league. Dotson has KU's heaviest usage, best scoring rate, and is a solid assist guy, though he only shoots just under 31% from deep. Marcus Garrett is a nice complementary combo guard and playing well in his first year as a full time starter. To go with those two, Azubuike is healthy and is one of the best bigs in college basketball while averaging nearly a double double while shooting 78% from the the floor. Agbaji is back as one of KU's primary knock down shooters to compliment their other parts and his hitting 38% from three on nearly five attempts per game. McCormick rounds out the starting five and is much improved as a second post player.

KU's best bench player is Isaiah Moss, who fills a role very similar to Agbaji while hitting 40% from long range on 4.5 attempts per game. Former K-State target Chrisian Braun is another shooter off the bench, while Enaruna is a long guard and a Top 75 HS recruit. De Sousa is back and playing a small role; he has regressed from his fairly average performance before his suspension.

1. Dominate the strength. To have any chance, K-State needs to take advantage of its defensive strength and force turnovers at a 25% clip while scoring 25+ points off of them. K-State must take care of the ball and keep its own TO rate under 20%; the Cat offense has fallen all the way to No. 306 in that category.

2. Match KU from behind the arc. Shooting 50% from three with Diarra and Gordon combining to go 7-of-10 was a big part of the upset win over WVU. Then, there will be the defensive challenge of finding Agbaji and Moss while trying to defend the dynamic Dotson and the post presence of Azubuike.

3. Win one of the other factors. On top of the already tough tasks above, the Cats probably need to win either the offensive glass or FT rate to pull off the road upset. Kansas has already lost a home game this year, and they don't do that often. It will take a special effort from K-State to force KU's second home loss this season.

For the second time in four days, Kansas State will play the best team its faced all season.

The good news, of course, is K-State blew out No. 12 West Virginia, 84-68, Saturday in Bramlage Coliseum the last time it was faced with its toughest test of the season. Winning tonight in Lawrence, however, would be a different level of accomplishment all together.

As @ksu_FAN laid about above, the path to success for K-State calls for turning the Jayhawks over regularly, knocking down shots at a high rate and finding a way to excel in a 'weakness' elsewhere.

Possible, of course, but the far more likely outcome is a relatively comfortable Kansas victory at home.

***Subscribe to K-StateOnline by clicking here***

Talk K-State football and basketball in the largest, most active K-State message board community anywhere, The Foundation.