PREVIEW & PICK: West Virginia at Kansas State
Non-conference play is in Kansas State’s rearview mirror and the Wildcats are set to begin play in the toughest basketball league in America. On Saturday, KSU takes on West Virginia at Bramlage Coliseum.
Before heading home for Christmas break, Kansas State – and specifically junior forward Nae’Qwan Tomlin – put on a dunking display that resulted in a feature on SportsCenter’s top plays segment. The Wildcats didn’t crush a Radford squad that hung around and wound up losing by eight points, but Tomlin starred with a season-high 26 points on 11 of 18 shooting from the floor.
Despite being 11-1, Kansas State is the lowest ranked Big 12 team in KenPom’s adjusted efficiency metric. Still, they are 52nd-ranked in that category which goes to show the strength of the league. Simply put, there are no bad losses on the horizon in league play given the strength of the Big 12, a conference that features the national champions in each of the last two seasons.
Head coach Jerome Tang’s group received five votes in the latest AP Poll, which essentially had the Wildcats as the 39th-ranked team. On Saturday, they’ll close out the calendar year with a visit from West Virginia.
No. 24 West Virginia (10-2) at Kansas State (11-1)
Date: Saturday, Dec. 31
Time: 6 p.m. CT
Location: Bramlage Coliseum
TV: ESPN+ / Big 12 Now
Radio: K-State Sports Network
Betting line: K-State -1, O/U 143
GAME NOTES
Kansas State’s 11-1 start is the school’s best since the Wildcats began the 2016-17 season with a 11-1 record. KSU still has a January non-conference matchup with Florida on its schedule, but the Wildcats have already surpassed their non-conference win total from each of the past three seasons.
K-State’s 11-1 start under head coach Jerome Tang is the best by a first-year coach in school history, surpassing the previous starts of 10-2 by College Football Hall of Famer Zora G. Clevenger (1916-17) and Bruce Weber (2012-13). Tang’s 11-1 start ranks among the very best by all current first-year head coaches in Division I, rivaling 12-1 starts by Missouri’s Dennis Gates and LSU’s Matt McMahon and an 11-2 start by Mississippi State’s Chris Jans.
K-State has won 5 consecutive games since absorbing its first loss of the Jerome Tang era against Butler on Nov. 30 with victories over Wichita State (55-50), Abilene Christian (81-64), Incaranate Word (98-50), Nebraska (71-56) and Radford (73-65). The Wildcats have been impressive on the defensive end in that 5-game winning streak, allowing 57 points on 39 percent shooting.
Nae’Qwan Tomlin (11.7 ppg.), Keyontae Johnson (17.7) and Markquis Nowell (13.7) give the Wildcats a dynamic 1-2-3 scoring punch, combining to average 43.1 points per game on 47.8 percent (177-of-370) shooting. They are the third-best scoring trio in the Big 12 after Kansas’ Jalen Wilson, Gradey Dick and Kevin McCullar (48.4 ppg.) and Baylor’s Adam Flagler, Keyonte George and L.J. Cryer (46.6 ppg.) and just ahead of the Texas Tech’s Kevin Obanor, Daniel Batcho and De’Vion Harmon (42.1 ppg.).
K-STATE PROJECTED STARTERS
Guard: Markquis Nowell ranks second nationally in assists per game with 8.3 per game. He is also 20th in Division 1 in assist/turnover ratio (3.12). He’s the active NCAA leader in steals and is one of two active players with 1,000 points, 500 assists and 200 steals.
Guard: Cam Carter
Wing: Keyontae Johnson leads the Wildcats in scoring. His 17.7 points per game is the highest single season average of his collegiate career.
Forward: David N’Guessan is shooting 67.9 percent from the floor, the highest field goal percentage for anyone on the Kansas State roster.
Forward: Nae’Qwan Tomlin was named the Big 12 co-Newcomer of the Week on Tuesday following his first career 20-point game when he scored 26 against Radford. He also tied his season high with nine rebounds and had two blocks, an assist and a steal.
K-STATE ROTATIONAL BENCH
Guard: Desi Sills
Guard: Tykei Greene
Center: Bebe Iyiola
Guard: Dorian Finister
Forward: Ish Massoud
WEST VIRGINIA PROJECTED STARTERS
Guard: Erik Stevenson is West Virginia’s leading scorer, averaging 14.5 points per game. Stevenson is in his first season at West Virginia and fourth different school in his five-year collegiate career. He began his collegiate career at Wichita State and played a year at Washington and South Carolina during the last two seasons. Stevenson has started all 12 games for the Mountaineers this season.
Guard: Kedrian Johnson is in his second season as a true rotational piece for the Mountaineers. He’s started 42 of WVU’s last 44 games. This season, he is shooting 29 percent from 3-point range, a slight improvement from his 24.3 percent shooting mark last season.
Forward: Emmitt Matthews left West Virginia for a year to play at Washington but returned for his fourth season as a Mountaineer and fifth in college this year. Matthews has the lowest usage rate of any WVU starter, but is great at avoiding turnovers, averaging just 0.8 per game while playing nearly 31 minutes per game.
Forward: Jimmy Bell starts for the Mountaineers but plays just 18.3 minutes per game. Against Power 6 opponents this season he’s scored in double figures just once in four such games, averaging six points per game against high-major competition.
Center: Tre Mitchell should be a familiar face to Kansas State fans. He played for the Texas Longhorns last season but left the program midway through the 2021-22 season. At West Virginia he’s started 10 of 12 games, averaging 12.8 points per game while shooting 54.3 percent from the floor.
WHAT TO WATCH FOR
1. Know your scout. West Virginia is 29th in the nation in 3-point shooting percentage as a team, but there are significant gaps in their percentages among players in their rotation. Stevenson is one of the elite shooters in college basketball this season, shooting 46.6 percent from 3-point range. He looks for his 3-pointers in transition. Per College Basketball Analytics, Stevenson is seventh-best in the nation in fast break points per 40 minutes. While Wildcat defenders should close out hard to him, Matthews and Mitchell, soft close outs should be in store for Johnson and Iowa transfer Joe Toussaint.
2. Johnson vs. Matthews. Great wings can be found across the Big 12 and this New Year’s Eve matchup should be another example of that. The battle between the wings in this game with Kansas State senior forward Keyontae Johnson and West Virginia senior forward Emmitt Matthews will be key. Kansas State relies on Johnson’s scoring more than WVU relies upon Matthews, so the 6-foot-7 Mountaineer wing will be as important defensively as offensively.
3. Protect the ball. Both the Mountaineers and Wildcats are top-25 in the nation in defensive turnover rate. Kansas State’s defense turns opponents over on 24.4 percent of their possessions, slightly better than West Virginia’s 23.9 percent rate. Nowell’s proficiency with the assist-to-turnover ratio should be critical to Kansas State winning this battle.
Predictions:
Mason Voth’s Prediction: Well, I thought I was going to be different and take the Wildcats. But I log on and see that K-State is a Vegas favorite and Gabe has already taken them. I will go with the Cats, as they get their chance for the first ranked win of the Tang era. The crowd will probably still be buzzing from the excitement of a Sugar Bowl appearance and with New Year's Eve on the horizon. Cats will have to frustrate Erik Stevenson and the returning Emmitt Matthews, but if that happens they win. Kansas State 73, West Virginia 72
Alec Busse’s Prediction: West Virginia has played a good group of high major opponents, like Purdue and Xavier. They have had varying levels of success and while K-State isn't as tested as the Mountaineers, I think being at home the Wildcats are able to escape with a narrow victory. Kansas State 73, West Virginia 70
Gabe Swartz’s Prediction: Protecting home court during toss-up games such as this one will be the key to Kansas State maintaining its control of an NCAA Tournament bid throughout Big 12 play. Even without the normal Big 12 crowd on an oddly late New Year's Eve tip-off, I think the Wildcats can win. Expect Cam Carter's defense on Erik Stevenson to be a crucial factor. Kansas State 71, West Virginia 69