Preview & Prediction: Kansas State vs. TCU

It's time for our official Preview & Prediction for Saturday's Big 12 battle between Kansas State and TCU.

Match-up to watch: In an overly generic sense, I do think this game is going to be a lot about what Kansas State's offense can accomplish against the Horned Frog defense.

Yes, TCU still has speed and plays an aggressive style under Gary Patterson, but this is not an elite Horned Frog defense by any stretch. They've given up 40-plus points in two of the last three games, each losses to SMU and Iowa State.

Kansas, to be fair, could only muster two touchdowns in the middle of those two TCU losses, so it's not as if the Horned Frog defense can't hold down a struggling offense. K-State, of course, fits that bill right now.

This defense is not as good, in my opinion, as the Oklahoma State or Baylor units K-State struggled so much with the last two games. Can the Wildcats find a way to score, say, three touchdowns? I think that would be enough to win.

TCU wide receiver Jalen Reagor is not lighting things up from a statistical perspective - 15 catches for 186 yards and three touchdowns this year - but he's an elite wide receiver, in my opinion.

Pro Football Focus recently released its latest NFL mock draft and had Reagor among their first round picks, and I think his athleticism and explosiveness earns him that kind of grade, as well.

The struggles at quarterback have really limited Reagor's impact, but a year ago he finished with 1,061 receiving yards (14.7 yards per catch) and nine scores despite, again, really poor quarterback play.

Reagor can turn a missed tackle on a slant route into a touchdown. I really expect this to be a low-scoring game for both teams, making it absolutely vital the Wildcats don't let Reagor get loose for what feels like a "cheap" score in this game.

1. Get to Duggan

Yes, I know former Wildcat Alex Delton plays for TCU, but he's simply not the story for this game.

The Horned Frogs split time between Delton and true freshman Max Duggan early, but Duggan is clearly TCU's QB now.

Duggan played 54 snaps to Delton's 10 last week. The snaps were closer when Delton had a chance to play in a blowout of Kansas, but three games ago, in a tight contest against SMU, Duggan played 79 snaps compared to one, total, for Delton.

You may see Delton play a few snaps on Saturday, but Duggan is TCU's quarterback.

Duggan is a talented player who has shown flashes of improvement, but he's not somebody, yet, fully ready to read Big 12 defenses and consistently avoid mistakes.

K-State, and Scottie Hazelton, need to show him a number of different looks, find ways to get pressure and - hopefully for K-State - force a couple of turnovers.

2. Patience

TCU is not easy to run against, while the Horned Frogs have shown vulnerability to the pass.

I think the big plays will need to come from Skylar Thompson in the passing game, yes, but despite the Horned Frogs' apparent weakness coming in pass defense I still think K-State is going to have to patiently, consistently run the football.

I think James Gilbert can break tackles against this defense, and I'm interested to see what Joe Ervin can do with his speed and change-of-direction ability against a fast TCU defense that can get out of position against screens, draws, counters, etc.

Whatever the game plan is, one I'd feature around the running game and quick, short throws, K-State has to believe in it, stay patient and chip away at TCU's defense.

3. Catch (create?) a break

I really believe K-State's defense has been okay - certainly not great, or even especially good - in the losses to Oklahoma State and Baylor. The problem, though, has been allowing too many explosive plays and struggling to tackle consistently.

On top of those things, though, it feels like the Wildcats aren't getting teams off schedule with sacks or tackles for loss as much as they were through the first three games. We also aren't seeing many game-changing plays on defense or special teams, regular happenings through the first three contests.

I don't really believe in "being due" in sports. Each game, each play, stands on its own and is not statistically more likely to go a certain way due to what has happened - or not happened - on those previous plays.

All of that said, I think the Wildcats may well get home on sacks a little more often in this contest and also find a way to set the K-State offense up with potentially game-changing field position in at least one instance against Duggan and company.

Both of these teams have absolutely flashed the ability to score points... against poor defenses. I don't think K-State or TCU are "poor" on defense. The offenses are somewhat opposite of each other. TCU has plenty of weapons at the skill positions but lacks a trigger man to take advantage of them. I still believe K-State has a good quarterback in Thompson, but the Wildcats lack explosiveness at their skill positions.

Any way you slice it, you have two inconsistent offenses going against a pair of capable defenses with defensive minded head coaches. I think the Wildcats snap a two-game losing streak with a timely forced turnover and enter next week's Oklahoma game at 4-2.

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