Previewing Game Six: Iowa State

2021 record: 7-6 (5-4)
Big 12 Standings: Fourth
Best wins: Oklahoma State (12-2, AP No. 7, FEI/SP+ No. 7), Kansas State (8-5, FEI/SP+ No. 19, Texas (5-7, FEI/SP+ No. 40)
Notable losses: They lost 20-13 to Clemson in the Cheez-It Bowl, 28-21 to Oklahoma and 41-38 to Texas Tech.
Head Coach: Matt Campbell. He enters his seventh season and has a 42-34 record in Ames as the head coach at Iowa State. Campbell has led the Cyclones to five straight bowl appearances and arguably their best season in school history in 2020.

Iowa State began 2021 with Big 12 title aspirations and ranked in the top 10. The Cyclones stumbled to a 7-6 record, but with the number of close losses and solid offensive and defensive metrics, they finished ranked No. 16 in the final FEI/SP+ ranking.

That was due to being ranked No. 23 on offense, No. 11 on defense but only No. 70 for special teams.

The defense was one of the best in the country and finished No. 9 in total defense (310.7 yards per game), No. 20 in scoring defense (20.5 points per game) and No. 22 for points per drive allowed (1.80).

Their run defense finished No. 21 in yards allowed (122.5 yards per game) and No. 42 in rush success rate allowed (41.2 percent).

The pass defense finished No. 11 in passing yards allowed (188.2 yards per game), No. 57 in pass efficiency defense and No. 51 in pass success rate allowed (40.3 percent).

Red zone defense was better. It finished No. 12 in conversion rate (72.7 percent) and No. 62 in points per drive allowed inside the 40 (3.74). They also finished No. 70 in third down conversions allowed (38.8 percent) and No. 31 in havoc rate forced (19.2 percent).

Iowa State's offense was solid and ranked No. 49 in total offense (423.9 yards per game), No. 57 in offensive success rate (43.8 percent), No. 43 in scoring offense (31.3 points per game) and No. 31 in points per drive (2.69).

Even with one of the country’s best running backs, the Cyclones only ran the ball 43.9 percent of the time and ranked No. 69 in rushing offense (160.1 yards per game) and No. 101 in rushing success rate (40.2 percent).

Surprisingly, the passing game was better. It ranked No. 32 in passing yards (263.8 yards per game), No. 43 in passing efficiency and No. 23 in passing success rate (46.9 percent).

Campbell and Iowa State were No. 2 in red zone conversions (95.9 percent) and No. 48 in points per drive inside their opponents’ 40 (4.10). The 3rd down conversion rate was poor, ranking No. 91 (36.4 percent).

A big issue for the Cyclones was poor special teams. The kickoff coverage, punt coverage and punt return units all ranked No. 104 or worse nationally. The kick return unit finished No. 53 and field goal efficiency was the bright spot and ranked No. 17.

The Cyclones were picked No. 6 in the Big 12 by the media in the preseason. They rank No. 56 in the preseason SP+, which accounts for being No. 59 on offense and No. 57 on defense.

They have endured massive losses on both sides of the ball, which is why they rank No. 128 in returning production. That is a result of being No. 125 on offense and No. 123 on defense.

Speaking of offense, gone are a four-year starter at quarterback that featured over 12,000 yards and 80 scores, a three-year starter at running back and nearly 4,000 yards and 50 touchdowns, plus one of the nation’s best tight ends and over 2,000 yards and 20 career scores.

80 percent of the rushing production has left, along with five of the top seven receivers.

Defensively, they have taken more major hits.

More than a combined 550 career tackles, and 60 tackles for loss have left the linebacker room. A defensive lineman with 146 career tackles, 34.5 for loss and 15 sacks has also departed the program.

Iowa State does return one of the most stable coaching staffs in the country, as offensive coordinator Tom Manning returns for his sixth season and defensive coordinator and innovator Jon Heacock is back for his seventh.

OFFENSE

1. WR Xavier Hutchinson (6-3/205): Preseason All-Big 12 and a 2021 first team All-Big 12 selection. Hutchinson is the lone returning weapon for Iowa State and he amassed 987 yards, 83 catches and five touchdowns as one of the Big 12’s best receivers last season.

2. QB Hunter Dekkers (6-3/206): Dekkers only played limited snaps last year, but he was a top 25 quarterback in his class and ranked in the top 10 for a pair of recruiting services. He has big shoes to fill in replacing four-year starter Brock Purdy.

3. RB Jirehl Brock (6-0/220): Another player replacing a Cyclone legend, Brock finished with 174 yards on 37 carries and added a touchdown. He’ll be tasked with helping replace over 80 percent of the Cyclones' 2021 rushing yardage.

4. OL Trevor Downing (6-5/304): 2021 first team All-Big 12. He's a key returner for an offensive line that was disappointing in 2021.

5. WR Jaylin Noel (5-10/190): The young receiver will need to step up after finishing 2021 with 38 catches and 265 yards.

6. TE Easton Dean (6-6/249): Dean only caught one ball for 18 yards, but with Iowa State’s emphasis on the tight end position, he’ll need to step up to replace a pair of All-Big 12 tight ends.

7. FB Jared Rus (6-2/242): Preseason All-Big 12. Rus is one of the few full backs left, but he may get some tight end snaps as well. He didn’t record a carry last year, but did catch seven passes for 67 yards.

DEFENSE

1. DE Will McDonald (6-3/236): Preseason All-Big 12 and a 2021 first team All-Big 12 selection. McDonald was one of the best defenders in the Big 12 last season with 13 tackles for loss and 11.5 sacks. He is already the all-time sack leader in Ames.

2. S Anthony Johnson (6-0/207): 2021 honorable mention All-Big 12. Johnson is the leading returner in tackles after tying for third on the team last year with 55. He also had three tackles for loss and broke up four passes.

3. LB O'Rien Vance (6-2/260): Vance missed time with injury in 2021, but he finished with 36 tackles and looks to lead the linebacker spot that suffered heavy losses.

4. S Beau Freyler (6-2/212): Another player filling big shoes with the loss of safety Greg Eisworth, Freyler finished 2021 with 41 tackles.

5. LB Gerry Vaughn (5-11/231): Vaughn finished fifth for the Cyclones in tackles with 45 and recorded 5.5 tackles for loss last year.

6. DL Isaiah Lee (6-0/292): Lee tied for third with 5.5 tackles for loss last year, had 1.5 sacks and finished with 21 tackles.

SPECIAL TEAMS

1. KR/PR Jaylin Noel: He averaged 26 yards per kick return and totaled 286 yards, along with 15 punt returns for 92 yards.

OFFENSE

1. WR Dimitri Stanley (6-0/196): The Colorado transfer caught 70 passes for 830 yards and four scores with the Buffaloes.

DEFENSE

1. LB Colby Reeder (6-4/242): He is one of the better FCS transfers. He will look to help Vance and Vaughn at linebacker. Reeder finished with 55 tackles, 5.5 for loss, 3.5 sacks and collected an interception in seven starts for the Delaware Blue Hens.

FAN: Kansas State wins if…

The Wildcats avoid the mistakes they made last year when they fell at home to Iowa State. The Cyclones are a rebuilding team, but Campbell has done some nice things in Ames. Hutchinson and McDonald are legitimate Big 12 stars, but it doesn’t look like the talent is quite ready to step in for the losses from last year’s disappointing season. By game six of the year, we’ll know a lot more about both teams and Ames has become a tough place to play. It certainly won’t be an easy one for K-State.

Prediction: Kansas State 24, Iowa State 17

DY: Kansas State wins if...

They don't turn the ball over, as I think they'll be the better team. With that said, turnovers have a way of evening up the score, especially on the road. And Iowa State's offense may need some help scoring points against the Wildcats' defense. If K-State wins the turnover margin, they should escape with a victory.

Prediction: Kansas State 27, Iowa State 23