Previewing Game Seven: TCU

2021 record: 5-7 (3-6)
Big 12 Standings: Seventh (Tie)
Best wins: Baylor (AP No. 5, FEI/SP+ No. 11), Texas Tech (7-6, FEI/SP+ No. 47), Cal (5-7, FEI/SP+ No. 67)
Notable losses: They lost 32-27 to Texas and each of their last five losses were by 12 points or more.
Head Coach: Sonny Dykes. He has been a head coach for nearly a decade. He was 30-18 at SMU over five seasons, which included three bowl trips and a 10-3 season in 2019. Dykes was 19-30 at Cal in four seasons, and that only included one bowl appearance. He finished 22-15 at Louisiana Tech over three seasons, and that consisted of one bowl appearance and a WAC championship. Dykes' father Spike Dykes was a long-time head coach at Texas Tech. Sonny played baseball for the Red Raiders.

TCU finished No. 83 in the final FEI/SP+ ranking, and that included being No. 37 on offense, No. 112 on defense and No. 68 on special teams.

It was the final season for Gary Patterson, who stepped down eight games into the season after an impressive 21-year career in Fort Worth.

Patterson’s teams finished in the top 25 on 12 different occasions during his career, including seven times in the top 10.

Surprisingly, the defense was the downfall in Patterson’s final season, as the Horned Frogs finished No. 119 in total defense (461.8 yards per game), No. 117 in success rate allowed (48.1 percent), No. 118 in scoring defense (34.9 points per game) and No. 125 in points per drive allowed (3.34).

The run defense finished No. 122 in yards allowed (222.0 yards per game) and No. 121 in rushing success rate allowed (50.3 percent). Their pass defense was also poor. It finished No. 86 in passing yards allowed (239.8 yards per game), No. 121 in defensive pass efficiency and No. 107 in passing success rate allowed (46.4 percent).

TCU’s havoc rate on defense finished No. 111 (14.6 percent), the third down defense ranked No. 124 (46.9 percent), red zone defense was No. 112 (90.2 percent) and points per drive allowed inside their 40 ranked No. 124 (4.72).

That’s a dreadful set of numbers for a program that featured dominant defenses throughout Patterson’s career.

The Frogs' offense was solid and finished No. 36 in total offense (435.8 yards per game), No. 48 in success rate (44.6 percent), No. 65 in scoring offense (28.7 points per game) and No. 59 in points per drive (2.32).

They ran the ball 57.2 percent of the time, finishing No. 29 in rushing yards (196.2 yards per game) and No. 56 in rushing success rate (45.1 percent). The passing offense finished No. 60 (239.6 yards per game), was No. 11 in passing efficiency and No. 42 in passing success rate (44.5 percent).

TCU was great at converting third downs, ranking No. 11 (46.1 percent), but their red zone offense was only No. 79 (82.6 percent) and they were No. 104 in points per drive inside the opponents’ 40 (3.40).

The special teams were average overall with a strong KO return unit that finished #12. Punt coverage finished #66, KO coverage was #74, FG efficiency was #88, and the punt return unit finished #125.

Dykes and the Horned Frogs were picked No. 7 by the media in the preseason Big 12 poll and the SP+ places them at No. 45, with the No. 12 offense and No. 85 defense. They are ranked No. 9 in returning production, and that stems from being No. 24 on offense in that department and No. 12 on defense.

The offense returns a pair of talented quarterbacks who will battle for the No. 1 spot, and even though running back Zach Evans is off to Ole Miss, a pair of good options return for TCU, in addition to the top four receivers.

The offense should once again be a strength.

For the defense, four of the top five and eight of the top 12 leaders in tackles are back in Fort Worth. Dykes’ co-offensive coordinators from SMU followed him to TCU.

Garrett Riley (formerly with David Beaty at Kansas) and AJ Ricker (formerly at Kansas, Oklahoma State and Missouri) helped SMU finish in the top 25 as an offensive unit last year.

Defensive coordinator Joe Gillispie joins Dykes after spending three seasons as the defensive coordinator at Tulsa. Gillispie arrived at the helm of the Golden Hurricane after spending many years in Texas high school football, which included five seasons working under Art Briles.

OFFENSE

1. WR Quentin Johnston (6-4/212): Preseason All-Big 12 and he was a 2021 first team All-Big 12 pick. Johnston is a big, explosive target. He averaged 19.2 yards per catch for 634 total yards and six touchdowns.

2. QB Max Duggan (6-2/214): Duggan played in 10 games, throwing for 2,048 yards, 16 touchdowns and just six interceptions. He averaged nine yards per attempt and finished with a passer rating of 157.6, while also rushing for 352 yards and three scores.

3. RB Kendre Miller (6-0/218): Miller played in 10 games last year and was second for TCU in rushing yards with 623. He led the team in touchdowns with seven, averaged an impressive 7.5 yards per carry and also caught 12 balls for 117 yards.

4. WR Taye Barber (5-9/179): 2021 honorable mention All-Big 12 selection. Barber was another big play threat and averaged 17.1 yards per catch and finished with 514 yards and a pair of scores.

5. WR Derius Davis (5-9/162): Davis led the team with 36 catches and finished with 518 yards receiving. He also had 10 rushes for 42 yards.

6. RB Emari Demercado (5-11/213): Demercado was third in rushing with 446 yards and had four rushing touchdowns. He also caught 12 passes for 94 yards.

7. OL Steve Avila (6-4/334): 2021 second team All-Big 12 pick. Avila is a multi-year starter that leads the TCU offensive line.

DEFENSE

1. CB Tre'vius Hodges-Tomlinson (5-9/180): Preseason All-Big 12 and a 2021 first team All-Big 12 selection. The decorated defensive back tallied 41 tackles, broke up seven passes and finished with two interceptions and forced two fumbles in 2021.

2. LB Dee Winters (6-1/230): Winters led TCU in tackles with 74, finished with five tackles for loss and picked off two passes.

3. DE Dylan Horton (6-4/272): 2021 honorable mention All-Big 12. Horton led TCU in tackles for loss with nine and sacks with four. He also had 51 tackles.

4. LB Jamoi Hodge (6-2/224): Hodge was third in tackles with 58 and second in both tackles for loss (6.5) and sacks (3) for the Horned Frogs.

5. S Nook Bradford (5-11/186): Bradford was fourth in tackles with 52 and finished with 2.5 tackles for loss and broke up two passes.

SPECIAL TEAMS

1. KR/PR Derius Davis: 2021 second team All-Big 12 selection. One of the more explosive returners in the league, Davis averaged 29.6 yards per kick return on 16 attempts with one score, plus added 92 punt return yards on nine returns.

2. K Griffin Kell: Kell made all 42 extra points and was 14 of 18 on his field goal attempts, with a long of 48 yards.

OFFENSE

1. RB Emari Bailey (5-8/197): The Louisiana-Monroe transfer finished with 642 rushing yards, averaged 6.3 yards per carry and scored eight touchdowns last season.

DEFENSE

1. S Mark Perry (6-0/213): A Colorado transfer, Perry finished 2021 with 66 tackles, three passes broken up and three interceptions.

2. CB Josh Newton (6-0/188): Newton is another Louisiana Monroe transfer and finished with 48 tackles, five for loss, broke up eight passes and recorded two interceptions last season.

FAN: Kansas State wins if…

The Wildcats can take advantage of a defense that will still be in transition. Coming off a poor season and with a brand new defensive coordinator, it’s likely that the Horned Frogs' defense will still struggle.

However, the offense will be very good and K-State will have to stop TCU’s many weapons. Fort Worth has been a tough place to play for the Wildcats as well, and it is one that could end up being a shootout.

Prediction: Kansas State 38, TCU 35

DY: Kansas State wins if...

The Wildcats can keep up on the scoreboard. At this point of the season, TCU should have their starting quarterback established and be more familiar and comfortable with the offense under Garrett Riley. That will make them tough on that side of the ball.

Though they can't be any worse from a defensive standpoint than they were during the 2021 season, I think they're still going to be putrid in that phase and Collin Klein should have it cooking with Adrian Martinez at this point too.

The showdown between K-State and the Horned Frogs looks like it could turn into a shootout. Nearly every program loses a game they shouldn't just about every year. Is this that one for the Wildcats?

It's on the road, right after the tilt with Iowa State and just before a major contest with Oklahoma State. I'd have Chris Klieman and company on upset alert.

Prediction: TCU 37, Kansas State 31