EMAW Online's Big 12 Tournament Predictions

March is the month of predictions and the EMAW Online Staff decided to get prepared for a March full of inaccurate predictions by doing it a week earlier for the Big 12 Tournament. Below are the staff's predictions on what to expect in Kansas City this week.

Mason: Most of the time I have a feel or lean toward a specific team, but this season I really don't. I don't want to pick Kansas, but I don't trust Texas to win in Kansas City and likely have to go through K-State and Kansas crowds. I also don't want to be a homer and say K-State wins it. So I will go the route of a cop out answer and project K-State and Kansas to meet in the championship game on Saturday and Kansas wins. I really want to see the two sides play again and T-Mobile Center would be insane with a 50/50 split of Cats and Hawks for the game.

Alec: I'll take Kansas. The Jayhawks won the league title outright this season, and that's quite an accomplishment given the difficulty of the Big 12 this season. I still don't know if I'm 100% bought into the idea that this Kansas team can win a national championship, but it's certainly a good team that can make a run to the Final Four. For Kansas to win the tournament title, I think Gradey Dick needs to get going shooting the basketball. In the last two games, he's only 2-for-10 from the perimeter.

Gabe: I'll make it a clean sweep of picks for the Jayhawks. The Jayhawks might not have looked great in their final regular season road game, but that's actually a common occurrence for KU, as Bill Self's squad is now 3-8 in the last 11 seasons in their final road Big 12 game. In a postseason setting where rotation's get tighter, I trust Kansas' core five more than any other group in the league.

To see all EMAW Online stories and post and view premium message boards, sign up with promo code EMAW 30 for your first 30 days free of EMAW Online. Use this link to sign up today!

Mason: As much as I would like to see Texas and K-State rematch in the semifinals, I think both should be on upset watch come Thursday evening. Since Texas plays before K-Stare and they will play the hungriest team (likely Oklahoma State), I will pick the Longhorns. Oklahoma State got beat by 10 points in each meeting with the Longhorns this season, but the game in Stillwater was pretty competitive and the Cowboys need to put up as many wins as they can. Plus, Mike Boynton is highly motivated to be back coaching in the Big 12 Tournament after being banned by the NCAA from postseason play last season.

Alec: I think there are two logical answers to this question: No. 4 Baylor and No. 3 Kansas State. The top two seeds, Kansas and Texas, get to play two of the worst teams in the Big 12 in the quarterfinals. Baylor and lost to Iowa State 73-58 to conclude the regular season and now the two matchups in Kansas City. Meanwhile, Kansas State gets to play a fully healthy TCU team that beat the Wildcats 82-68 in January. I think TCU -- when healthy -- is a better team than Iowa State is. So I'll take Kansas State -- but I don't really feel very confident that Baylor guards enough to beat Iowa State.

Gabe: It's gotta be Baylor. When they are making jump shots this team is as fun as any to watch, but when they aren't it typically leads to them looking foolish on the defensive end. An early tip time on Thursday morning and a rowdy Iowa State crowd should make this even tougher for a Baylor group that just saw how tough the matchup was on Saturday. I don't think any of the higher seeds have an easy matchup on Thursday, but I'll lean toward the first game of the day as the one most likely to send a team wearing white jerseys home.

***LISTEN TO THE EMAW ONLINE PODCAST PREVIEWING THE BIG 12 TOURNAMENT HERE***

Mason: Iowa State is a pretty good answer, but I don't see how they beat Baylor twice in the span of five days, so I will say West Virginia. The Mountaineers have a spark plug in Erik Stevenson that can get hot and put the Mountaineers on a big run, plus West Virginia played Kansas tight in Allen Fieldhouse two weeks ago, and that would be the second round matchup for West Virginia. Another note on the Mountaineers, Bob Huggins got ejected in the first half of their quarterfinal game against Kansas last season, let's see if he lasts longer this season. I think Oklahoma State has a higher likelihood of going to the semifinal, but West Virginia has enough streakiness to their game to play in the Big 12 Championship game.

Alec: The four bottom-seeded, West Virginia, Texas Tech, Oklahoma State and Oklahoma, teams will likely all bow out of the Big 12 Tournament in the quarterfinals because I expect Kansas and Texas to both handle business. I don't trust Iowa State's offense to score enough to beat Kansas, but I do trust their defense more than I trust TCU to make enough shots to advance to Saturday. I'll take Iowa State here because their defense is good enough to frustrate more talented teams.

Gabe: I've already said I think Baylor is the most likely top-4 seed to lose in the quarterfinals, and I don't think any of the bottom four teams are going to make it to the championship game. However, I wouldn't be surprised if either Oklahoma or Oklahoma State gets past a Texas team that seemingly always comes up short at the Big 12 Tournament (does the COVID season really count?) and makes a semifinal appearance.

Mason: Keyontae Johnson is going to have a big tournament if the Wildcats can make it to day two. Johnson has upped his play over the last few weeks and is back in peak form at the right time, he is going to strap the Cats on his back and be the MVP, whether K-State wins it or loses in the championship game.

Alec: If Kansas is going to win the Big 12 Tournament, it's going to be on the back of their best player -- and Big 12 Player of the Year -- Jalen Wilson. He's struggled to consistently shoot the ball of late, but he broke out of his slump at bit at Texas making 3-of-7 from deep in the loss to Texas on Saturday. I'll bet on Wilson to continue to shoot it well.

Gabe: Kevin Durant is the only player ever to win Big 12 Tournament MVP on the losing squad, and I don't think a player of his quality exists in the league this year, so I'm not going to make my selection from anyone other than my championship pick. When Kansas has won the Big 12 Tournament, the award hasn't always gone to their best player, so I'll go out on a limb and say Gradey Dick gets red hot from deep and takes home the crown.

Mason: Jalen Wilson, Keyontae Johnson, Gradey Dick, Erik Stevenson, Bryce Thompson. These teams are always a mixed bag of the best players all season and players with high upside on teams that could play a handful of games.

Alec: Jalen Wilson, Dajuan Harris, Marcus Carr, Keyontae Johnson, LJ Cryer. I think we're going to get Texas and Kansas in the Big 12 title game, so that's why you see a couple of Jayhawks and Marcus Carr listed on my All-Tournament team. I think Cryer has a good game for Baylor against Iowa State and Johnson has showed up in big moments for much of the season.

Gabe: Markquis Nowell, Gabe Kalscheur, Gradey Dick, Jalen Wilson, Keyontae Johnson. The roster makeup of my team should give away my title game prediction. I think it'll be a raucous T-Mobile Center all week as the Sunflower State squads play great basketball.

Mason: Because I know ball, I am not taking TCU. I have been onto TCU all season and Jamie Dixon once again found a way to finish at .500 or worse in conference play. The Horned Frogs still haven't won more than 9 games in a Big 12 season since joining the league and I don't think they could go on the run to be the darkhorse because of their weak offense. So I will go with who I mentioned above in West Virginia. The Mountaineers are probably comfortably in the NCAA Tournament now, but wouldn't hurt themselves by not leaving any doubt. Erik Stevenson is the kind of player that can carry a team for a few games and the Mountaineers also have strong role players and a frustrating brand of basketball that some teams may not be willing to match in an ultimately meaningless conference tournament for Kansas and Baylor.

Alec: TCU is not a team that I've been high on for much of this season given their inability to shoot the 3 ball consistently. But if TCU is going to turn into the dark horse team that many national prognosticators have said they can be, it likely starts in the Big 12 Tournament. TCU enters the tournament having won just three of their last nine games. So the Frogs must get things rolling before the NCAA Tournament.

Gabe: If they didn't have to play Kansas in the quarterfinals, and if I had any faith that Bob Huggins wouldn't lose his cool and get ejected, I would lean toward West Virginia. All of the advanced metrics love the Mountaineers and have them sandwiched between the league's elite teams, with KenPom and Torvik both marking WVU as a better team than Kansas State in adjusted efficiency. They also have Erik Stevenson, who can go takeover mode in any game.