Published Jan 25, 2022
Game Preview: Wildcats at Baylor
Derek Young, Grant Flanders and ksu_FAN
KSO

Kansas State finishes the toughest four-game stretch of the season against last year's national champions, the Baylor Bears, on the road. It is the final of a string of games against the Big 12's best four teams according to the NET rankings. All were ranked in the top 20.

At worst, the Wildcats will be 2-2 in those games, a record that any K-State fan would have taken before the gauntlet.

However, the collapse against Kansas and one-possession losses to Marquette, Oklahoma, West Virginia and TCU just make that record more frustrating.

Scott Drew's Bears followed up last year's national title with 15 straight wins to start the season before a couple of home losses to Texas Tech and Oklahoma State.

Baylor does have quality non-conference wins over Villanova (No. 8 NET), Michigan State (No. 19) and Oregon (No. 46). And they have beaten Iowa State, Oklahoma (twice), TCU and West Virginia in Big 12 games.

The Bears feature a top-five KenPom offense that ranks second in the Big 12 in efficiency at 1.05 points per possession.

They are the Big 12's best three-point shooting team (38.2 percent) and are solid on two-point buckets to rank No. 6 (50.6 percent) for an eFG% (effective field goal percentage) of 53.3 percent (No. 1).

Baylor is also a great offensive rebounding team. They grab 33.5 percent of their misses in league games, which ranks No. 3.

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They are in the bottom half at taking care of the ball with a turnover rate of 22.4 percent (No. 8) and are last in free throw rate (24.6 percent) and make 72.4 percent from the charity stripe.

Drew's defense is No. 11, nationally, but they are just fifth Big 12 games. They're allowing 0.96 points per possession. However, they are last in the league in 2PT% (two-point percentage) defense at 55.9 percent.

On the flip side, they're first in three-point percentage allowed (27.6), which comes out to an eFG% allowed of 51.2 percent (No. 8).

They are two two in three other factors.

Baylor forces turnovers on 23.4 percent of their possessions (No. 2), allow an offensive rebounding rate of just 27.6 percent (No. 2) and only allow a free throw rate of 24.1 percent (No. 1).

K-State faces another great offensive rebounding team after being destroyed on the offensive glass by Kansas on Saturday. The Wildcats were good on the boards against both Texas Tech and Texas, so how they perform in Waco will be a key once again.

Shooting threes will be another major factor, as this game features the top two teams from beyond the arc in the league. Kansas State makes 36 percent from deep to rank second and only allows 29.4 percent, while the Bears make 38.2 percent and only allow 27.6 percent.

Turnovers will be another item to watch.

K-State is the best in the league at taking care of the ball against a defense that is second at forcing them. Baylor is turnover prone, but the Wildcats' defense hasn't been dominant at forcing them this season, despite it typically being a strength for Bruce Weber's squad.

The Bears are led offensively by four players scoring in double figures in Big 12 play, and all of them threats from the three-point line.

Guard Adam Flagler leads the Bears at 15.1 points per game, hitting 47.6 percent from distance on 6.1 attempts per game. Flagler takes 26.7 percent of Baylor's shots when on the floor and has an offensive rating of 1.02.

Guard LJ Cryer is the Big 12's best sixth man, though he plays the third-most minutes on the team. He is averaging 14.3 points per game, while hitting 50 percent of his six three-point attempts per game for an offensive rating of 1.15. That number leads the Bears.

Transfer point guard James Akinjo missed a game recently with injury, but he is still putting up 14.2 points per game and leading Baylor with 4.2 assists per game. Akinjo hits 33.3 percent from beyond the arc on 4.5 attempts per game, with an offensive rating of 1.05.

The final threat is 6-foot-8 guard/forward Matthew Mayer. Mayer scores 10.9 points per game, along with 4.9 rebounds and makes 34.4% from three-point range on 4.6 attempts per game.

Big men Flo Thamba and Jonathan Tchamwa Tchatchoua split time at the 'five' spot. Each grabs 5.4 rebounds per game, but neither are big scorers and they combine for 10.0 points per game.

Other players to watch are Kendall Brown and his 5.1 points and 5.1 rebounds per game, along with guard Dale Bonner and Jeremy Sochan. Sochan has missed the last four games with injury, but he may return tonight.

SUMMARY AND PREDICTION

HOW TO WATCH: ESPN Plus

TIP TIME: 7:00 P.M. CST

FAN: Defeating Baylor in Waco will be a tough task, and it will be interesting to see how Kansas State comes out after Saturday's disappointing loss. More than likely, the Wildcats will compete, but the Bears pull away and win comfortably. Bears win, 71-63.

DY: I agree. The most curious part about Tuesday night is to see the mental state of K-State. That's a crushing loss that can be hard to recover from completely in just three days. They had their rivals defeated. And Baylor is a giant, themselves. The Wildcats will hang around a half before being worn down and succumbing to a run that ultimately breaks the dam. The Bears win convincingly, 77-62.

FLANDO: Baylor is balanced and a scary challenge for any foe traveling to Waco. Kansas State's rebounding struggles will also likely persist. The Bears also have talented guards that will be a handful to guard, too. The Wildcats stay competitive with good ball movement and solid perimeter defense. Baylor's versatility and much more formidable frontcourt will ultimately prove to be too much. K-State falls, 73-67.

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