Published Feb 12, 2022
Game Preview: Wildcats at Iowa State
Derek Young, Grant Flanders and ksu_FAN
KSO

Kansas State heads to Ames to face Iowa State for the first time this season. The Cyclones started the season hot under first year coach T.J.Otzelberger, winning their first 12 games that included victories over Xavier, Memphis, Creighton and Iowa.

They moved to as high as No. 8 in the polls.

Since then, Iowa State has wins over Texas Tech and Texas, but they have lost eight of their last 12 games and have fallen to last place in the Big 12. The Cyclones rank at or near the bottom of the league in most of the major advanced stat categories.

Defensively, Iowa State is eighth in the league and allowing 1.02 points per possession. They are one of the best pressure defenses, as indicated by ranking first in forcing turnovers (24.1 percent turnover rate) and third in steal rate (11.9 percent).

They are middle of the pack in defensive rebounding with an offensive rebounding rate allowed of 29.6 percent.

Opponents make 55.6 percent of their two-point baskets (last) and 34.7 percent from deep (last) for an eFG% (effective field goal percentage) allowed of 54.3 percent (last). They also send opponents to the free throw line more than anyone else (37 percent).

Iowa State is last in the Big 12 in offensive efficiency at 0.91 points per possession. The Cyclones are seventh at taking care of the ball (21.4 percent turnover rate) and eighth in eFG% (47.2 percent). They make 50.9 percent of their twos (No. 6) and 27.6 percent of their threes (No. 9).

Iowa State is last in offensive rebounding rate (26.2 percent) and at making trips to the free throw line (26.0 percent free throw rate).

On paper, there are some good matchups here for K-State.

Rebounding has been the biggest problem for Kansas State and they are facing a team that is last in the league on the offensive glass. K-State is also poor on finishing at the rim, with a low 2PT% (two-point percentage). But they are facing the Big 12's worst interior defense.

Iowa State's biggest strength is forcing turnovers, and Kansas State is best in the league at taking care of the ball. The Cyclones are still solid and it will be extremely tough to win in Ames, but they are also an extremely flawed basketball team.

Advertisement

Iowa State is led by a pair of guards, both new to the program.

Izaiah Brockington is scoring 16.5 points per game in the Big 12 play. The Penn State transfer is a consistent scorer and has played well lately, scoring 24 versus Kansas and 26 against Oklahoma State.

He's not a big outside threat, hitting just 24 percent from beyond the arc on 2.3 attempts per game, and he's missed all eight he's attempted in the previous games. Brockington's offensive rating is 0.98.

Tyrese Hunter was a four-star, top 50 Rivals recruit and is scoring 11.9 points per game. Hunter scored 22 points in the loss to West Virginia. He has the highest usage on the team and is second to Brockington in shot rate.

The freshman is turnover prone, with 12 over the last three games. He's also only a 23.9 percent three-point shooter in league play, which leads to an offensive rating of 0.85.

Iowa State's next two threats are a pair of high volume three-point shooting guards.

Minnesota transfer Gabe Kalscheur scores 7.7 points per game, while shooting 23.8 percent from distance on nearly six attempts per game.

Caleb Grill has transferred away from the Cyclones and back and is scoring 6.4 points per game off the bench with a 34 percent three-point shooting effort on 4.5 attempts per game.

Iowa State's big man woes aren't quite as dramatic as Kansas State's, but they are still a major issue.

Kansas transfer forward Tristan Enaruna averages 4.8 points per game and 3.6 rebounds per game as the starter at the '4' spot. Denver transfer Robert Jones has started at the '5' spot lately, but he only scores 2.8 points per game and is 2 of 12 from the floor the last four games.

George Conditt has been around Ames for a while, but still has struggled enough to lose his starting spot. He's scored 6.0 points per game and collected 3.8 rebounds per game over the last five games.

Rounding out the lineup are Washington State transfer 'stretch four' Aljaz Kunc and third year guard Tre Jackson.

Kunc scored 11 in the SEC Challenge vs Missouri, but is 1 of 8 from behind the three-point line over the last three games. Jackson stepped up against Kansas with 12 points and a 4 of 6 night from distance, but he missed the West Virginia game with injury.

That game was only the second game missed by any player in Iowa State's rotation of nine players this season.

SUMMARY AND PREDICTION

HOW TO WATCH: ESPNU

TIP TIME: 3:00 P.M. CST

FAN: K-State has played well on the road this season aside from the two-game stretch versus Baylor and Ole Miss that followed the heartbreaking loss to Kansas. With Iowa State's issues, there is no reason Kansas State can't go to Ames and compete well. This team knows what's on the line and it's due to have a couple of other players besides Nijel Pack and Mark Smith step up with a strong performance. The Wildcats get back up off the mat in a very Bruce Weber way and come home with the win, 72-67.

DY: The matchups strongly favor K-State. The Cyclones aren't built to capitalize where the Wildcats struggle. It will just be about stemming the tide when Iowa State does go on a run and incites the crowd in Hilton Coliseum. If they can do that, I like their chances. Kansas State has kept everyone on the hook all season in regard to a possible NCAA Tournament berth and can do the same today with a win. That happens, 65-59.

FLANDO: For K-State, it is another must-win situation. Due to a strong non-conference showing, Iowa State isn't in as dire of a situation. However, they are coming off a three-game losing streak and playing one of their rivals at home in front of a rowdy crowd. If the Cyclones have that fire in their belly, they will be as tough as ever to beat on Saturday. Kansas State is going to need at least three guards to play at a high level. I believe the Wildcats have the perimeter defenders to throw at Brockington and Hunter and slow them down. It will be up to the frontcourt to play well enough and avoid putting K-State in a bind. Kansas State grinds out a 59-58 win on the road.

***Subscribe to K-StateOnline by clicking here***

Talk K-State football and basketball in the largest, most active K-State message board community anywhere, The Foundation.