Kansas State travels to Stillwater with another opportunity to improve their standing on the bubble. Oklahoma State has good numbers in the metrics and ranks No. 52 in the NET and 51 in KenPom, but they are 12-13 on the season.
In fact, they are the only Big 12 team with an overall record of under .500. They have also lost six of their last eight and aren't eligible for the tournament. Thus, the optics of a loss to the Cowboys wouldn't be great for the Wildcats.
Since losing in Manhattan, Oklahoma State has a nine-point win over Oklahoma and a 23-point victory over West Virginia, coupled with losses by four to TCU and by 14 to Kansas. Both were on the road.
They have won four of their last five games at home, with the only loss coming in overtime to Iowa State.
K-State came out on top with another late win in their last contest versus the Cowboys thanks to a Nijel Pack three-pointer with only two seconds remaining.
The Wildcats won points in the paint, 30-28, but Oklahoma State shot 59.4 percent on two-point baskets compared to only 48.6 percent for Kansas State, as the Cowboys were effective with two-point jumpers, especially from Avery Anderson and Bryce Thompson.
The turnover rate and offensive rebounding rate battles were nearly even. K-State was 9 of 23 from distance (39.1 percent) compared to 8 of 25 for Oklahoma State (32.0 percent) and the Wildcats finished 8 of 10 from the free throw line, while the Cowboys were 6 of 7.
Bryce Thompson scored 22 in Manhattan and is the Cowboys' leading scorer in Big 12 play at 11.7 points per game. His 10 of 12 outing from the free throw line paved the way for that production.
He's scored 11 and 13 in his last 2 games, respectively, but Thompson is only making 22.2 percent from beyond the arc in Big 12 games.
Avery Anderson is a consistent scorer and has put up 14 or more in each of his last three games. He's 14 of 18 from the free throw line in the last two but only 1 of 9 from three-point range, which is surprising considering he makes 34 percent in Big 12 play.
Isaac Likekele scored 19 points against TCU a few games ago but rattled off only six points combined in the next three. His minutes are down in the last two games as well. He's played fewer than 20 minutes in each one.
Tyreek Smith has moved into the starting lineup but remains a role player. He has only one double-figure scoring performance this season.
Moussa Cisse had one of his best games this season against West Virginia with 18 points and 10 rebounds and is playing well lately. He's averaging 11.8 points per game over the last four. Cisse only scored two points and had five rebounds in Manhattan.
Bryce Williams missed the game in Manhattan and has averaged 6.3 points per game over the last three. He makes just under 30 percent of his threes in Big 12 play.
Keylan Boone is the scariest three-point threat for Oklahoma State. He is hitting 32.4 percent on the season on over five attempts per game. Boone is only 5 of 19 (26 percent) from three-point territory over the last four games, so he may be due for a hot shooting day.
Rondel Walker had the best shooting game of his career with four made threes against Kansas State on the road. It was his only game with more than two made three-pointers this season. Walker has only eight combined points over the last three games.
Kalib Boone has had a couple of nice games lately,. He scored 12 points with five boards against Oklahoma and had eight points and five rebounds versus Kansas.
SUMMARY AND PREDICTION
HOW TO WATCH: ESPNU
TIP TIME: 1:00 P.M. CST
FAN: Oklahoma State features one of the best efficiency defenses in the Big 12, so I expect it to be a grinder. Their defense can swing pretty wildly, though. They have six Big 12 games where they have held opponents to under 0.95 points per possession and they are 5-1 in those games. In games where opponents are above that, the Cowboys are 0-7. In Big 12 home games, they've held opponents to 0.92 points per possession on average, compared to 1.01 on the road. K-State will need to make shots and approach 50 percent on twos and at least make a third from behind the arc, plus stay even on the boards and turnovers. It is another game that comes down to the last few possessions and once again Kansas State finds a way, 67-64.
DY: The Cowboys' recent shooting numbers scare me. As a team, they seem poised to have a breakout game from the field. I can see it beginning that way and Oklahoma State controlling the first half and jumping out to six or seven-point lead at the break. Then, as we've seen in the last few weeks, the K-State defense puts on the clamps the rest of the way and finds big, timely makes from their core of Mark Smith, Nijel Pack and Markquis Nowell. They almost win if someone outside of the big three has a nice outing, and I think that guy today will be Mike McGuirl. Wildcats win the grinder that _Fan is projecting, 64-62.
FLANDO: It is one of the more winnable games the rest of the way for Kansas State, but nothing is easy away from home in the Big 12, even for the road dawgs. Nijel Pack, Mark Smith and Markquis Nowell all finished in double figures when they faced the Cowboys in Manhattan. Those three are what make the Wildcats go, and it will take another solid effort from each of them to defeat a long and athletic Oklahoma State squad again. It was Pack's final deep three-pointer that gave K-State the win in dramatic fashion. I see a similar type of nail-biting game. Selton Miguel missed the last matchup, but so did Bryce Williams for Mike Boynton's club. Both will be available on Saturday afternoon. It is Ismael Massoud's recent success that could be the difference. Kansas State narrowly beats Oklahoma State again, 67-65.
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