Kansas State defeated Texas Tech a month and a half ago thanks to out-performing several matchups and factors that have hurt the Wildcats throughout the season.
First, K-State won the rebounding battle and especially the offensive glass. They held Texas Tech to only six offensive boards, grabbed nine themselves and out-scored them on second chance points, 13-0.
Secondly, Kansas State performed well against one of the Big 12's best interior defenses when they made 50 percent of their twos and scored 20 points in the paint.
K-State also won points off turnovers. Even though they had 16 of their own and the Red Raiders committed 18, the Wildcats scored 18 points off turnovers compared to just 11 for Texas Tech.
Kansas State was right at their season average from the perimeter. They were 9 of 26 (34.6 percent).
Mark Adams' group has established themselves as a top three team in the league and seemed to be poised to push Baylor for the No. 2 spot in the Big 12. But that came crashing down a bit when they fell to TCU on Saturday night, combined with the Bears knocking off Kansas.
Prior to losing to the Horned Frogs, the Red Raiders had won seven of eight and had the potential of challenging for a No. 2 seed in the NCAA Tournament.
Texas Tech is undefeated at home and their closest game n Lubbock was an eight-point win over the Jayhawks.
They have the No. 1 defensive efficiency in the Big 12, with the best interior defense and perimeter pressure. The Red Raiders allow just 0.93 points per possession and the team in second (Oklahoma State) allows 0.97. It's not even close.
Needless to say, it will be a tough task and require K-State to repeat trends on the glass and with their interior offense, which have been weaknesses all season.
Texas Tech has one of the more balanced attacks in the league, but they are still led by Bryson Williams and his 16.1 points per game in Big 12 games. He scored 20 points in Manhattan and is coming off a 21-point game versus TCU.
The 6-foot-8 forward is consistent inside and out and hits 58 percent of his two-point buckets and 44 percent from deep against league opponents.
TJ Shannon was bouncing back from an injury when the teams met the first time and played limited minutes. He averages 9.2 points per game against conference foes and has scored 6.7 per game over the last three.
Big man Kevin Obanor averages double-digits in Big 12 play, but he has been scoring 6-8 per game the last few weeks that included an explosive 23-point and 13-rebound game against Baylor.
Guard Adonis Arms only scored two points in Manhattan, but he has been re-inserted into the starting lineup and has been playing well. Arms is averaging 12 points per game over his last five, while grabbing 5.8 rebounds with 3.4 assists per game and hitting 4 of 11 from beyond the arc in that stretch.
Davion Warren is the final starter. He scored nine points in Manhattan, while making 2 of 3 from distance and is in a solid two-game stretch with 14 points per game and making 3 of 6 from the three-point line.
Kevin McCullar has struggled with injuries this season. He scored six points during the first meeting between the clubs, and after missing two games, he has only scored four points combined in the last two contests.
Marcus Santos-Silva provides solid depth inside and gives Texas Tech a solid 4.7 points and 4.2 rebounds per game in Big 12 play.
Clarence Nadolny is a nice guard off the bench and scored six points versus Kansas State in Manhattan. He had one of his better games three games ago when he turned in 14 points against Texas.
SUMMARY AND PREDICTION
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FAN: It was going to be tough enough already against the league's most dominant team on their home floor, but throw in them coming off a loss and K-State's bubble chances essentially ending, it's hard to see how the Wildcats stay competitive in Lubbock on Monday night. Kansas State broke out of two weaknesses the first game and that's unlikely to repeat itself. The Wildcats will need an insane night from beyond the arc with 12 or more makes and hitting 50 percent or better to even keep it close and that's not likely to happen. K-State falls, 73-58.
DY: Fan hit a lot of my key notes. Kansas State likely has less to play for when they travel to the toughest environment in college basketball. Even KenPom gives the Red Raiders the best home court advantage in the nation. Add the fact in that it is a bounce-back spot for the Red Raiders and they are still battling for seeding, and that is a recipe for a non-competitive game at United Supermarkets Arena. The Wildcats get smacked, 74-54.
FLANDO: Texas Tech is a really good team that has shown vulnerability only a few times this season. Dropping a game to TCU on Saturday evening should have the Red Raiders fired up to respond, and they will also want to avoid being swept by K-State. The Wildcats have to dust themselves off after a heartbreaking loss, too. A win over Mark Adams' crew on the road would give Bruce Weber's squad new life for NCAA tournament hopes. A loss puts all of that to rest, outside of an improbable championship run in Kansas City. Maybe Texas Tech will have tired legs coming off their late road game in Fort Worth. Ultimately, I don't think that will be enough to top the Red Raiders. Kansas State falls, 72-67.
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