NOTE: This season's KenPom numbers are still based on very limited data.
Kansas State faces its toughest test of the young season in Kansas City versus the Arkansas Razorbacks. Eric Musselman's team is 3-0 this season, with wins over Mercer, Gardner Webb and Northern Iowa.
Arkansas made it to the Elite Eight last year before losing to Baylor.
They were led by one-and-done first round draft pick Moses Moody and his 16.8 points per game, 5.8 rebounds per game and 35.8 percent shooting from behind the arc.
Also gone is Justin Smith (13.6 PPG, 7.3 RPG) and Jalen Tate (11.0 PPG, 34.2 percent from three), which means they lost three of their four leading scorers.
Musselman's teams are know for their fun style of fast-paced basketball, with a balance between shooting threes and getting to the rim. Last year's team scored 1.11 points per possession in KenPom's adjusted efficiency and this year's squad is matching the number to currently rank in the top 20, nationally.
They are turning it over on only 13.5 percent of their possessions (top 20 nationally) and are making 40.3 percent from distance (top 40). Arkansas is average or below average on the offensive glass and getting to the free throw line.
Arkansas finished No. 10 nationally on defense last year by holding opponents to only 0.90 efficiency in KenPom's adjusted rankings. They are at 0.91 this year, which ranks in the top 30.
The Razorbacks are currently in the top five in limiting offensive rebounding rate allowed (17.8 percent) and top 20 in free throw rate allowed (17.5 percent).
They force turnovers on 21 percent of possessions, but have allowed opponents an eFG% (effective field goal percentage) of 55.8 percent (No. 319), while opponents make 43.4 percent from the three-point line (No. 342).
K-State's shooting and ball-handling will be key areas to watch. The Wildcats are hitting 43.9 percent from distance (top 15), but they're turning it over on 21.7 percent of their possessions (No. 261).
Getting to the free throw line has also been a challenge for Kansas State. They possess a free throw rate of 39.8 percent.
Their offense was bad much of the season a year ago, but they will need to be efficient to have a shot in this one. They'll also be defending against a really good offensive team.
The key on defense under Bruce Weber has been forcing turnovers, and we'll soon find out if they can do that against a Razorback team who takes care of the ball about as good as anyone in America.
Also, can they guard the three-point line and not give up a bunch of easy twos against one of the most balanced offensive systems in college basketball?
6-foot-1 guard JD Notae is the key returner for Arkansas and is the only double-digit scorer still on the roster. He's scoring 21.7 points per game to go with with 3.7 assists, while hitting 35.7 percent from beyond the arc on over nine attempts per game this season.
He has an impressive offensive rating of 1.22, considering his usage of over 25 percent and taking nearly 32 percent of the shots while on the floor.
Au'Diese Toney is a 6-foot-6 guard that transferred from Pitt and scores 11.3 points per game while grabbing 7.3 rebounds per game. Toney averaged 9.7 points per game and grabbed 5.4 rebounds per game over his career as a Panther.
The 5-foot-7 Chris Lykes is a guard and another key transfer, from Miami. He is scoring 15.7 points per game and hitting 60 percent from distance after averaging 13.7 points per game and 2.7 assists per game as a Hurricane.
Center Connor Vanover is listed at 7-foot-3 and is scoring 10.5 points per game and grabbing 4.0 rebounds per game, but he is only playing 11 minutes per game this season. The big man will also step out and shoot threes, but he's only hitting 25 percent on two attempts per game.
6-foot-3 guard Davonte Davis is another returner averaging 6.7 points per game and grabbing 7.3 rebounds per game. He scored 8.5 points per game a season ago for the Razorbacks.
6-foot-10 forward Jaylin Williams returns inside and does a little of everything for Arkansas. He has tallied 7.3 rebounds per game, dished out 5.7 assists per game and scored 6.0 points per game.
Other contributors are South Dakota transfer Stanley Umde, Wichita State transfer Trey Wade and returner Jaxon Robinson, all of which are 6-foot-6 or taller.
SUMMARY AND PREDICTION
FAN: Arkansas is similar to K-State in that they had key losses from last year's team and feature a group of returners that are mixed in with some key transfers. However, they are coming off an Elite Eight appearance and looking to build off that for another NCAA berth and battle for the upper part of the SEC. Their pace and system will provide a unique test for the Wildcats and will give a great benchmark of where Bruce Weber is at in putting together a team after two lackluster seasons. Kansas State competes well against the Razorbacks, but doesn't have enough to finish the game. Arkansas wins 78-73.
DY: I am ceding a little bit on my preseason expectations. The Wildcats are a bit further along and a bit more effective than I would have projected at this particular stage of the season. And I know they will also improve throughout the year. How fast they improve likely dictates the fate of their season. Because of that, they'll compete a bit tonight before the late tournament pedigree of the Razorbacks kicks in and pulls away inside the T-Mobile Center. Arkansas wins 81-68.
FLANDO: The length and athleticism Arkansas possesses will be a change of pace from what K-State faced in the first two games of the season. The team that takes care of the ball the best, likely wins. Rebounding could prove difficult for the Wildcats, too. They'll need more than just hot shooting to win Monday night and I just don't see it all coming to fruition against top flight competition at this point in the year. I think Kansas State can keep it close and likely make Arkansas sweat more than the mid-majors did the Razorbacks have faced. Ultimately, I'll take Arkansas 78-71.