Published Feb 9, 2022
Game Preview: Wildcats vs Baylor
Derek Young, Grant Flanders and ksu_FAN
KSO

Baylor and Kansas State met just two weeks ago and the Bears took it to the Wildcats in a 74-49 win in Waco. However, that game aside, the Bears aren't playing great lately and have lost two of their last three and only have four wins in their last eight games.

They don't look like the dominant team we saw the last two seasons and even to begin this season. Especially on the defensive end, as they've given up 1.09 points per possession the last three games,.

Baylor only ranks sixth in the league in defensive efficiency after finishing second, behind only Kansas the last two seasons.

K-State will have to correct several things on both sides of the ball to produce a different outcome in Manhattan.

First, Kansas State must be better in the paint. They allowed Baylor to make 73 percent of their two-point shots. That's the best ever for a Bear team against a Big 12 opponent and the third-best two-point shooting against any opponent in the KenPom era, going back to the 2001 season.

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It was the third-worst for a K-State defense in the same time span.

On the offensive end, Kansas State failed to take advantage of Baylor's lack of interior defense, and the Wildcats only converted on 37.8 percent of their two-point buckets. Baylor ranks ninth in the league in 2PT% (two-point percentage) defense.

They're allowing nearly 56 percent from that range against league foes.

Secondly, K-State must compete on the glass. Baylor grabbed 15 offensive rebounds, nearly 50 percent of their missed shots and scored 13 second chance points in the first meeting.

Thirdly, the Wildcats must shoot better from distance, while continuing to play solid three-point defense in a game that will feature two of the best three-point shooting teams in the Big 12.

Kansas State had their worst three-point shooting game in Big 12 play when they played in Waco. They made only 21.7 percent from beyond the arc.

To have a chance on Wednesday evening, the Wildcats will need to be above 35 percent from deep as a team, and they'll have to be able to rely on someone other than Nijel Pack to make shots.

Point guard James Akinjo has been inconsistent after not playing against K-State in Waco. The former Arizona guard scored 25 and was 4 of 7 from distance and 7 of 8 from the free throw line in the win over West Virginia.

But he followed that up by going 0 for 11 and not scoring against Kansas.

Adam Flagler missed the contest versus the Mountaineers due to an injury, but he has scored 16 points in each of his last two games and is 7 of 16 from deep in those two, combined.

Kendall Brown continues to have a consistent freshman season. He's scoring just over 10 per game in his last five, to go with 7.4 rebounds per game.

6-foot-9 forward Matthew Mayer has been a streaky shooter, lately. He is 6 of 12 from the three-point line over the last five games. Flo Thamba is solid as a starter in his role at the 'five'. He is scoring just under five points per game and grabs over five rebounds per game.

LJ Cryer, the Big 12's best sixth man, has missed the last three games and is still questionable. Cryer was extremely hot before that, hitting 48 percent from beyond the arc on over six attempts per game in the eight contests before his injury.

Jonathan Tchamwa Tchatchoua had one of his best games this season against the Wildcats in Waco, scoring 13 points with 12 rebounds.

Jeremy Sochan was returning from an injury during the first meeting, but the freshman forward put up 17 points against Alabama and added another 13 against West Virginia, while making 9 of 11 from two-point range.

Finally, Dale Bonner is playing well as the back-up point guard. He's scoring just over six points per game, with 11 assists over the last four games.

SUMMARY AND PREDICTION

HOW TO WATCH: ESPN PLUS

TIP TIME: 7:00 P.M. CST

FAN: Kansas State will perform better than they did in the debacle in Waco, but Baylor is coming off a drubbing by Kansas. While it looks like the Bears aren't nearly the force that we saw the last two years, there is still plenty of talent and they are the league's best shooting team. It will be a back-and-forth game, but the Bears pull away down the stretch and defeat the Wildcats, 70-65.

DY: While they are playing some of their worst basketball in three years, they're still full of skill and talent and can shoot the lights out, and Baylor is probably due to do so after being whacked by Kansas. That means they should be playing some very good basketball in Manhattan. K-State may be catching them at the wrong time. The Wildcats can play very, very good tonight and still lose. I think that's the outcome. The Bears respond with a win over Kansas State, 74-66.

FLANDO: K-State has finally seemed to find a rhythm on both ends of the floor, recently. Will that be good enough to defeat the defending national champions at home? Since Baylor dominated Kansas State in Waco, they have stumbled a bit. The Wildcats will remain competitive, but the firepower on the perimeter and size of Baylor will make it tough for K-State. Kansas State will have to rely heavily on shots to fall, but they'll also miss Selton Miguel's perimeter defense against this particular squad. Bears win in Manhattan, 77-72.

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