The above chart is last year's KenPom numbers, but they still give a snapshot of what to expect in tonight's opener against Florida A&M.
Robert McCullum enters his sixth year as head coach after previous head coaching jobs at South Florida and Western Michigan. McCullum spent one year as an assistant at Kansas State under Lon Kruger in 1990 before going with him to Florida and Illinois.
The Rattlers finished 8-12 last season and 7-5 in the MEAC, though they are making the move to the SWAC this season.
They lost by 31 to Oklahoma, 21 to Oregon, 10 to Georgia Tech and 7 to South Carolina in their 2020 non-conference slate.
McCullum's teams at Florida A&M have been best at forcing turnovers. They've ranked near the top 50 in defensive turnover rate in each of the last three seasons. Last year's team also had a solid eFG% (effective field goal percentage) defense, finishing No. 69 nationally at 47.9 percent allowed.
Offensively, the Rattlers have been poor. They've finished outside the top 300 in each of McCullum's previous seasons.
Florida A&M is particularly poor at taking care of the basketball. Their turnover rate of 23.9 percent a season ago finished No. 342 in America. That is something that could play into K-State's defensive strength.
McCullum and company return all five starters from last year's team.
Combo-guard MJ Randolph led the team in scoring (15.3 points per game), assists (4.4 assists per game) and was second in rebounds (6.4 rebounds per game). Randolph was voted second team preseason all-SWAC.
Guard Jalen Speer was second in scoring at 11.7 points per game and hit the most threes last year for the Rattlers, while shooting 32.9 percent from behind the arc.
Forwards DJ Jones and Bryce Moragne are solid inside, averaging 8.9 and 8.5 points per game, respectively, to go along with 12.8 combined rebounds per game.
Guard Kamron Reaves is another outside scoring threat and hit 33.8 percent from distance, while scoring 7.7 points per game last year.
SUMMARY AND PREDICTION
FAN: Tonight is one of seven non-conference games against teams expected to finish No. 250 or worse in the KenPom and NET ratings. Given that both teams struggle to take care of the ball and are best defensively at forcing turnovers, expect to see some sloppy play with high turnover rates throughout the game. If Kansas State is indeed a better team this year, especially at shooting the basketball, it should still be a comfortable win. Florida A&M is an experienced team and has a guard that can do a little bit of everything, plus a couple of others that can hit some threes, so a close game isn't out of the question. If K-State is the improved team we expect, look for a comfortable win. Even in a slow-paced game, the Wildcats get into the 80s. Kansas State wins 83-62.
DY: I'm taking note of Robert McCullum working for Lon Kruger extensively in the past. I'm sure they have a lot in common as coaches in what they want to run, how they want to play and how they want to attack the opposition. Bruce Weber had his way with Kruger, so the same should apply tonight. However, it'll be tight for at least a half most likely, perhaps more. With that being said, neither team wants to push it on offense and both will likely be pretty generous with the ball. That sounds like a low-scoring affair to me. K-State wins 72-56.
FLANDO: I see Kansas State cleaning up some of their turnover woes and dominating on the perimeter. I think the Wildcats will likely struggle in the paint with Davion Bradford doubtful and having to resort to Kaosi Ezeagu once again. It is the time of the season where defensive woes may show themselves more than any other. Florida A&M can find success on the offensive end of the floor. But K-State likely puts them away comfortably because of their lack of ball security. Avoiding turnovers themselves, continued shooting success and creating some havoc on the defensive end should make for an 85-67 win for the Wildcats.