Kansas State returns home to face Green Bay after a disappointing loss to Marquette on Wednesday night. The Wildcats last faced Green Bay during the 2017 season when Barry Brown and Xavier Sneed led K-State to an 80-63 victory.
Will Ryan replaced Linc Darner as head coach last year. Ryan is the son of long time Wisconsin coach Bo Ryan and adopted the same slow pace. Green Bay went from one of the fastest-paced teams in the country under Darner to one of the slowest, flipping from an average of 74 possessions per game in the Darner era to 65 this season.
Green Bay was 8-17 last season and is 2-7 this year, which includes a 72-34 loss to Wisconsin.
Green Bay is a bad team with no real strength on either offense or defense.
They rank No. 305 in KenPom's adjusted efficiency on offense at only 0.94 points per possession. The Phoenix make 47.5 percent of their two-point baskets (No. 234) and 26.0 percent from beyond the arc (No. 342) for an eFG% (effective field goal percentage) of 44.2 percent (No. 316).
Green Bay's ball security is average, as evidenced by a turnover rate of 18.8% percent (No. 169). They rebound 25.7 percent of their misses (No. 249), have a free throw rate of 28.0 percent (No. 227) and convert 72.7 percent from the charity stripe.
The defense is slightly worse, allowing 1.08 points per possession (No. 314). Opponents make 51.1 percent of their twos (No. 230) and 31.6 percent from distance (No. 113) for a eFG% allowed of 49.8 percent (No. 185).
They have a weak turnover rate forced on defense of 17.3 percent (No. 270). Opponents rebound 29.5 percent of their missed shots (No. 215) and have a FT rate of 33.2 percent (No. 244).
It will be the fifth game for Kansas State against a team ranked No. 300 or worse in KenPom. Including Green Bay, those five teams are currently a combined 9-34, with five of those wins coming against non-Division I opponents.
K-State is always going to have 'buy games', and there are plenty of solid opponents on the non-conference schedule, including five that are ranked inside the KenPom top-75, but they have not proven to be helpful for the Wildcats.
The shooting numbers speak clearly.
Kansas State is 37 of 86 (43.0 percent) against the four teams ranked outside the top 300 in KenPom and 21 of 93 (22.6 percent) against top 75 teams. Until that shooting translates against better opponents, the 25 percent winning percentage against good teams will likely continue.
Undoubtedly, K-State will probably have another good shooting game against a bad Phoenix defense, but what will that look like when they are facing Big 12 opponents?
Green Bay is a young team, consisting of mostly freshmen or sophomores as Ryan works to build his program.
Emmanuel Ansong leads the team in scoring at 13.1 points per game and in rebounding at 5.4 rebounds per game. He is 6-foot-4, but he plays more like a forward than a guard. The junior also leads the team with an offensive rating of 1.08 and is in his second year with the Phoenix after transferring up from Wheeling University.
6-foot-6 sophomore guard Donovan Ivory is at his third school in three seasons after starting at UMass-Lowell and then transferring to Boise State. Ivory scores 11 points per game and grabs 4.3 rebounds, while making 33.3 percent from the three-point line on four attempts per game.
Kamari McGee is a 6-foot guard that comes off the bench to score 7.6 points per game. McGee is shooting 25.0 percent from distance on 2.7 attempts per game and has a low efficiency of only 0.77.
6-foot-3 point guard Lucas Stieber leads in assists at 4.7 per game to go along with 5 points on just over 5 shots per game. He's hitting 30 percent from distance on 3.3 attempts per game.
6-foot-8 forward Japannah Kellogg is the best big, averaging 5.9 points and 4.3 rebounds per game.
SUMMARY AND PREDICTION
FAN: Green Bay is a bad team that Kansas State should handle soundly. Anything less than a 15-20 point win will be a disappointment. Expect the Wildcats to start slow but pull away late in the first half and win comfortably. K-State wins, 74-53.
DY: Like Fan, I think it follows a similar script as many of the other wins this season. Because it is a giant change in competition, I foresee a slow start, and we've seen that before. That's happened against the better competition and the brutal teams. It probably happens on Sunday evening against Green Bay. But the Wildcats win, 79-52.
FLANDO: Even a poor performance from this Kansas State bunch should be enough to knock off two-win Green Bay. The Wildcats don't need to beat the Phoenix as bad as Wisconsin did, but a convincing win is necessary for the morale of the program. Even with three losses, K-State is still fully invested on trying to reach its potential. They need to prove that by handling Green Bay with ease. Kansas State wins, 79-52.
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