Published Nov 23, 2021
Game Preview: Wildcats vs Illinois
Derek Young, Grant Flanders and ksu_FAN
KSO

NOTE: This season's KenPom numbers are still based on very limited data.

Kansas State faces old friend Brad Underwood and Illinois tonight in Kansas City. As bad as the Wildcats played for much of the game on Monday, the Illini may have been worse.

After leading by double-digits early, Illinois allowed Cincinnati to go on runs of 14-1 and 22-3 and lost by 20 to the Bearcats.

They only made 37.1 percent on twos, 13.6 percent on threes and turned it over on 21.2 percent of their possessions in the loss.

Underwood's squad lost two key players from last year's 24-7 squad.

One of those Ayo Dosunmu and his 20.3 points per game, 6.3 rebounds per game and 5.3 assists per game, which left the NBA, while fifth-leading scorer Adam Miller (8.3 PPG, 2.8 RPG) is at LSU.

The Illinois defense is strong and ranks No. 1 in adjusted defensive efficiency on KenPom at 0.87 points per possession. Teams shoot only 40.8 percent on twos (No. 27) and 30.0 percent on threes (No. 96) for an eFG% (effective field goal percentage) allowed of 42.1 percent (No. 29).

They also force turnovers on 22.3 percent of possessions (No. 63) and only allow opponents to rebound 24.2 percent of their misses (No. 69). Opponents have a free throw rate of 40.8 percent (No. 212), so they do foul and send opponents to the FT line at a high rate.

Advertisement

Shooting has been a struggle for Illinois. They're only hitting 45.5 percent on twos (No. 247) and 28.3 percent from three-point land (No. 272) for an eFG% of 44.4 percent (No. 281).

They have struggled to take care of it as well, coughing it up on 25.1 percent of their possessions (No. 336), but they pound the offensive glass and grab 44.8 percent of their missed shots (No. 3) to give them a solid offensive efficiency of 1.09.

They rank No. 75 in America with a free throw rate of 36.7 percent.

With the shooting woes of the two teams, it is a game that looks to be a grinder with likely a ton of turnovers and free throw attempts. Neither team takes care of the ball well and both are known for forcing turnovers.

If either team can hit some threes at even a 30 percent clip, that could be a big difference-maker. Watch the offensive glass, too. K-State isn't great in that area and Illinois is one of the best in the country. Second chance points may also be a huge factor.

Leading returner and 6-foot-10 forward Kofi Cockburn missed the first three games for Illinois but returned last night for a typical 18-point and 7-rebound game. He will present a huge challenge for the Wildcats in the paint.

Four others average over 10 points a game.

6-foot-6 guard Jacob Grandison is the most efficient with an offensive rating of 1.23, as he scores 11.5 points per game and is hitting 41.7 percent from beyond the arc.

Guard Trent Frazier is listed at 6-foot-2 and scores 11.7 points per game and is hitting 40 percent from three, with nearly seven attempts per game.

Point guard Andre Curbelo dishes out five assists per game, but he is struggling to shoot it. He does score 10.3 points per game, but is taking 12.7 shots and hitting only 9.1 percent from distance on nearly four attempts per game. He leads the team in usage, but only has an offensive rating of 0.78.

6-foot-10 forward Coleman Hawkins is another big man that averages 11.3 points and 7.3 rebounds per game. He will step out and shoot threes, taking over three per game, but is only making 23.1 percent thus far.

Da'Monte Williams is a rebounding guard off the bench that grabs 7.5 boards per game, while scoring 3.8 points per game.

Utah transfer Alfonso Plummer is another guard to watch. He scores 6.3 points per game and is making 23.1 percent on 4.5 three-point attempts per game, but was a 13.6 points per game scorer and hit 38.3 percent from the three-point line last season on nearly seven attempts per game.

SUMMARY AND PREDICTION

FAN: It is a game that is a bit hard to gauge based on how ugly both teams looked for stretches a night ago. Whoever can pick themselves up and show some intensity and toughness early to set the tone will be a key. Kansas State's intensity level and effort was lacking for most of the first half and Illinois simply was overwhelmed by Cincinnati after a great start. At this point, K-State has to show me something before I put much confidence in them and last night gives me pause. If I expect a team to come out and play tough and set a tone, it's the one led by Brad Underwood and not Bruce Weber, unfortunately. Illinois defeats the Wildcats, 68-58.

DY: A poor matchup? I think so. Even though Illinois has struggled to shoot it this year, they're probably due for one of their better games from the field. On top of that, they get to the free throw line and crash the glass. Kansas State has deficiencies in the rebounding department and are prone to fouling. But perhaps they'll turn the Fighting Illini over a bit. Additionally, Brad Underwood's group may be struggling on the offensive end, but they're still playing defense. I don't like K-State's chances on Tuesday night, but it may actually be less disappointing if they play with high intensity and effort for the full 40 minutes instead of timid and lifeless ball. Illinois wins, 74-61.

FLANDO: I'm probably beating a dead horse, but Kansas State needs to take care of the ball if they are going to defeat another long and athletic team. They also need to match or better the Illini intensity immediately out of the gate, which is something they failed to even get close to doing against Arkansas. K-State found success against the Razorbacks when they played four guards and one big. It may be something they want to try against Illinois, but their size could make them twice about doing that. The Illini were less competitive on Monday. That may make them respond in a very motivated way to remove the bad taste from their mouth. I believe both teams will be more competitive for 40 minutes. It will also be a defensive 40 minutes. I'll take Illinois, 67-62.

***Subscribe to K-StateOnline by clicking here***

Talk K-State football and basketball in the largest, most active K-State message board community anywhere, The Foundation.