Published Dec 21, 2021
Game Preview: Wildcats vs McNeese
Derek Young, Grant Flanders and ksu_FAN
KSO

Kansas State returns to Manhattan for another 'buy game' against a 300th or worse KenPom opponent. McNeese is 3-8 this season with a pair of wins over non-Division I competition and another win over St. Francis (NY).

They have a bunch of double-digit losses, including the last 3 games to UTEP, Louisiana and Wyoming. They also lost by 16 early in the year to TCU.

Coach John Aiken is in his first year as head coach after spending the last three years as an assistant at McNeese. Aiken has the Cowboys playing fast-paced basketball, averaging 74 possessions per game to rank in the top 10 for pace, nationally.

The McNeese defense is below average. They ranking No. 278 while allowing a kenpom adjusted efficiency of 1.05. Their best traits are forcing turnovers on 19.2 percent of possessions (No. 166) and allowing an eFG% (effective field goal percentage) of 49.8 percent (No. 190).

They allow 49.8 percent on two-point shots (No. 187) and 33.2 percent from beyond the arc (No. 184).

McNeese is one of the worst teams in the country on the defensive glass, allowing opponents to rebound 33.5 percent of their misses (No. 320). Opponents also get to the free throw line often, averaging nearly 23 attempts per game and a free throw rate of 41.2 percent (No. 336).

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The offense for the Cowboys is very bad and scoring just 0.91 points per possession in KenPom's adjusted efficiency to rank No. 339 in America.

Their best aspects are hitting the offensive glass hard for an offensive rebounding rate of 29.6 percent (No. 136), plus they get to the free throw line at a regular clip, averaging 20 attempts for a free throw rate of 31.5 percent (No. 133).

However, they make under 60 percent from the charity stripe when they get there, which is reflected in their shooting numbers. McNeese is shooting only 26.8 percent from distance (No. 338) and 46.8 percent on two-point baskets (No. 258) for an eFG% of 44.4 percent (No. 321).

They also turn the ball over often, with a turnover rate of 24.0 percent (No. 346).

K-State's defense has advantages all over the floor. The Wildcats boast the No. 1 3PT% (three-point percentage) defense in the nation currently and are facing an awful shooting team.

Kansas State is also disruptive and faces an opponent that turns it over nearly 25 percent of the time. K-State is also a very good defensive rebounding team, which negates one thing the Cowboys do, decently.

McNeese could take advantage of the Wildcats' tendency to send opponents to the free throw line, but they are pretty bad at making them when they do get there.

The Cowboy defense has some better match ups, but Kansas State has shot it well against poor competition and should shoot a lot of free throws since McNeese send opponents to the line in bunches.

K-State does have some poor games taking care of the ball, thus turnovers from the Wildcats could be a slight concern.

The Cowboys play a lot of guys in Coach Aiken's fast-paced system, with 10 players averaging at least 15 minutes per game. Players that started early in the season aren't starting lately and three of their top six scorers have had a reduced role in their last several games.

Aiken is clearly still trying to find his best lineup just over a third into this season.

McNeese's leading scorer is an under-sized graduate transfer forward from VMI. The 6-foot-5 Myles Lewis averages 10.7 points per game and 4.9 rebounds per game. He isn't much of an outside shooting threat, but Lewis makes 55 percent of his twos and has a solid offensive rating of 1.05.

7-foot-1 center Brendan Medley-Bacon is next in scoring at 10.1 points per game, while leading the team with 6.5 rebounds per game. Medley-Bacon transferred to the Cowboys from VCU and also played at Coppin State.

6-foot-6 forward Kellon Taylor is a Albany grad transfer after previously playing at Duquesne. He averages 8.9 points per game and 4.9 rebounds per game, along with 1.8 assists. He also leads the team in turnovers at 3.1 per game and has a low offensive rating of 0.87.

A trio of players average seven or more points per game but have played sparingly the last few games or missed time with injury.

6-foot-4 sophomore guard Collin Warren is in his second season at McNeese and averages 8.6 points, while hitting 35.7 percent from beyond the arc. 6-foot-4 junior guard and South Carolina transfer TJ Moss scores 7.8 points per game and hits 32.6 percent from three on 5.1 attempts per game.

6-foot-7 forward Christian Shumate averages 7.4 points and 6 rebounds per game. 6-foot freshman guard Trae English and 6-foot-4 junior guard Zach Scott have started the last several games but neither averages more than 4.5 points per game and both shoot under 27% from distance.

6-foot-5 guard Harwin Francois is the best shooter for the Cowboys, hitting 35.7 percent from three on 5.1 attempts per game.

SUMMARY AND PREDICTION

HOW TO WATCH: ESPN Plus

TIP TIME: 7:00 P.M. CST

FAN: Kansas State has handled their last several 'buy games' handily and it should be no different against McNeese. The Wildcats have plenty of advantages against a team still trying to find itself and that should equate to a sound victory. Expect K-State to score into the 80s and win it going away. Give me the Wildcats, 83-58.

DY: Kansas State shoots it well against bad teams and have one of the best defenses in America to throw at one of the worst offenses in America. It should be their most convincing win of the season, and I believe it will shake out in that fashion. K-State soars past McNeese, 85-54.

FLANDO: Kansas State should be able to handle McNeese with ease. The Cowboys played three high-major teams this season and lost all three by 15-plus points. The Wildcats defense has been top-notch all season, while the offense has been inconsistent. They shouldn't need to shoot it particularly well to win comfortably. Give me K-State, 73-57.

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