Published Dec 19, 2021
Game Preview: Wildcats vs Nebraska
Derek Young, Grant Flanders and ksu_FAN
KSO

Kansas State faces long-time league rival Nebraska for the first time since 2011 and the Wildcats have won the last five games in the series.

Fred Hoiberg is in his third year in Lincoln and has been a major disappointment in his return to college basketball. Nebraska won only seven games in each of his first two seasons and they are only 5-6 this season and have lost their last four.

The Huskers' best win is over South Dakota, with losses to Western Illinois, Creighton, NC State, Indiana, Michigan and Auburn.

One huge factor in Hoiberg's struggles in Lincoln is that his teams simply can't shoot. His Iowa State teams became known for efficient offense, ranking in the top 25 each of his last four seasons in Ames.

None of his Nebraska teams have cracked the top 100. This year's team currently sits at 1.03 in KenPom's adjusted efficiency and ranks No. 133 in the country.

Notably, this year's team is shooting only 25.9 percent from the three-point line (No. 347), but they are a solid 54.1 percent on twos (No. 57), for an eFG% (effective field goal percentage) of 48.0 percent (No. 232).

Hoiberg's Cyclone teams typically had an eFG% of 54 percent and ranked in the top 25, nationally.

Another trait for his teams is taking care of the ball and that has been a strength for the Huskers this season. They have a turnover rate of just 15.7 percent (No. 28).

They don't hit the offensive glass, as they rank No. 333 with an offensive rebounding rate of 21.5 percent. Their free throw rate is 33.1 percent (No. 106), and Nebraska makes 74.1 percent from the charity stripe.

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The Huskers are allowing 0.99 points per possession, which ranks 124th, nationally. They're allowing 46.9 percent from two-point range (No. 90) and 35.4 percent from three-point range (No. 260) for an eFG% of 49.6 percent (No. 177).

Nebraska is forcing turnovers on 20.1 percent of their possessions (No. 124) and have a free throw rate allowed of 25.5 percent (No. 83). Rebounding is not their game on the defensive end of the floor either, allowing opponents to rebound 33.0 percent of their misses (No. 308).

Another Hoiberg trait is playing fast and this year's group is playing at a pace of 73.1 possessions per game (No. 32), and like earlier K-State opponent Marquette, they put the ball up quickly. The Huskers average just 15.1 seconds per possession. That is the ninth-fastest in the nation.

Nebraska isn't very good and they've played even poorly, lately.

Three-point defense is overweighed by many but it's hard not to look at Kansas State's defense allowing 24.5 percent from beyond the arc (No. 2, nationally) against a Husker team that only makes 25.9 percent.

K-State is also good on the defensive glass against a team that really doesn't try to grab offensive rebounds. That leaves Nebraska needing to take really good care of the basketball and get to the free throw line at a high rate.

The Husker defense and Wildcat offense are both average, but it may come down to Kansas State hitting some shots against a high-major opponent, which is something they haven't done this season. Nebraska does allow opponent's to make 35.4 percent from three-point land.

The bulk of Nebraska's offense runs through a pair of players. Five-star and Rivals top 30 recruit Bryce McGowens leads the team at 16.2 points per game.

The 6-foot-7 guard also leads the team in rebounds with 6.4 per game and takes 4.5 threes per game but only makes 20.4 percent. His offensive rating is 1.02 and he's second on the team in usage at 24.3 percent.

6-foot-3 guard and Arizona State transfer Alonzo Verge, Jr. is next at 16.0 points per game and leads the Huskers with 5.2 assists per game. Verge is shooting 23.8 percent from distance but only takes 1.9 per game, while leading Nebraska in usage rate at 32.8 percent with an offensive rating of 0.96.

Rounding out the backcourt is 6-foot-2 guard Keisei Tominaga. The sophomore junior college transfer is the leading three-point threat, making 33.9 percent on 5.1 attempts per game.

6-foot-9 forward Derrick Walker is the leader in the frontcourt, averaging 9.1 points and 6.1 rebounds per game. Walker is a Tennessee transfer in his third season as a Husker and leads the team in offensive rating at 1.33.

Lat Mayen is the other starting big. The 6-foot-9 former TCU Horned Frog averages 4.6 points per game and 3.3 rebounds per game. He will step out and take threes. He makes 23.5 percent on 3.4 attempts per game.

CJ Wilcher is a Xavier transfer, and he's effective off the bench. The 6-foot-5 guard averages 7.5 points per game while making 33.3 percent from beyond the arc on 4.6 attempts per game.

More guard depth comes from 6-foot Western Illinois transfer Kobe Webster, who averages 7.0 points per game, while hitting 33.3 percent on three attempts from distance per game.

Trey McGowens, a former Pitt Panther and brother of Bryce, is currently out with a broken foot and won't be available.

The key backups inside are the 6-foot-11 Eduardo Andre and 6-foot-7 Keon Edwards after Nebraska lost solid freshman big Wilhelm Breidenbach for the season earlier this month.

SUMMARY AND PREDICTION

HOW TO WATCH: Big Ten Network

TIP TIME: 5:00 P.M. CST

FAN: It is a game K-State needs to win before Big 12 play starts in January. Nebraska isn't a great opponent, but they are a high-major team and the Wildcats will be on the road. The Huskers are struggling and without a couple of key depth pieces, while Kansas State will likely be the healthiest they've been all season. The Wildcats play to their strengths, playing solid defense against a bad shooting team, winning on the glass and finally hitting some shots from distance against better competition. Wildcats win, 78-71.

DY: The line is a little funky for Sunday's game. One would think K-State would be favored by at least a couple points. Instead, it was just 1.5, and now it has moved to the point that Nebraska is the favorite. Something doesn't smell right to me. Kansas State's strengths should play well versus the Huskers and they might be as close to full strength as they've been all season. I'm expecting a tight one, but losing in Lincoln would be inexcusable and would be detrimental to any hope for this season. Because of that, K-State edges out Nebraska, 74-72.

FLANDO: It is too bad Nebraska isn't having a better season. There just isn't a lot to gain for Kansas State. And if they lose, it would be disastrous for any postseason hopes. Unfortunately, winning narrowly does nothing more than it did when they blew out Green Bay last weekend. That's not a lot. The only way to come away feeling good about it is to defeat the Huskers, convincingly. That would help them some in the NET rankings and allow for some excitement to brew just before league play. I'm counting on the Wildcats to do just that. K-State wins, 82-68.

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