Kansas State opens Big 12 play in Norman on Saturday against Oklahoma. New head coach Porter Moser has the Sooners off to a good start with a 10-2 record and inside the top 40 in both the NET and KenPom.
Oklahoma has nice wins over Florida, UCF and Arkansas and losses to Utah State and Butler.
K-State fans will always remember losing to Moser's Loyola Chicago team with a Final Four bid on the line in 2018 and his Sooner team resembles his teams in Chicago that featured a tough defense and efficient offense led by great shooting.
The Sooner offense currently ranks No. 68 in KenPom with an adjusted efficiency of 1.07 points per possession.
They are led by incredible shooting with an eFG% (effective field goal percentage) of 58.5 percent (No.5), including 61.7 percent from two-point territory (No. 2) and solid shooting from beyond the arc at 36.1 percent (No. 62).
Oklahoma is poor at each of the other four factors, turning it over on 20.8 percent of possessions (No. 265), only rebounding 24.1 percent of their misses (No. 289) and a free throw rate of 24.8 percent (No. 294).
They do make 75 percent from the charity stripe, which ranks No. 62.
Defensively, the Sooners only allow 0.91 points per possession, which ranks No. 23 in KenPom.
They are solid in all four factors but allow an eFG% of only 43.8 percent (No. 20), as opponents make 45.5 percent of their twos (No. 56) and 27.5 percent of their threes (No. 22).
They force turnovers on 21.9 percent of possessions (No. 54), only allow an offensive rebounding rate of 24.1 percent (No. 45) and allow a free throw rate of 25.5 percent (No. 77).
Norman isn't typically a tough place to play, but Moser is a good coach with an experienced team that has played well so far. The 22-point thumping of Arkansas speaks loudly, as the Razorbacks put K-State away early and won comfortably in Kansas City.
Defensively, the Wildcats match up fairly well with the Sooners. They have a top 20 eFG% defense to counter Oklahoma's excellent shooting. Kansas State also could exploit a Sooner team that doesn't take great care of the ball or hit the offensive glass hard.
However, it will be tough to score against Oklahoma, especially for a K-State team that has struggled to shoot it. Plus, the Sooners are pretty good at forcing turnovers themselves, something Kansas State has struggled with at times this season.
Oklahoma features five seniors and two juniors in the top seven of their rotation and have played the same starting five in every game this season. All five starters score at least nine points per game.
Eastern Washington senior forward transfer Tanner Groves leads Oklahoma with 14.4 points per game. He is a 40.5 percent three-point shooter on 3.5 attempts per game, hits 70 percent of his twos, averages 5.9 rebounds per game and has a solid offensive rating of 1.22.
He will be a tough matchup for either Kaosi Ezeagu or Davion Bradford and may force K-State to play Ismael Massoud some at the 'five'.
Guard Umoja Gibson is in his second season in Norman after transferring from North Texas. He scores 12.1 points per game and is the volume shooter for the Sooners, hitting 39.5 percent from distance on nearly seven attempts per game. Gibson has an offensive rating of 1.13.
Duke grad transfer point guard Jordan Goldwire scores 9.7 points per game and leads Oklahoma in assists at 4.4 per game. He hits 35.5% percent from the three-point line on 2.6 attempts per game and has an offensive rating of 1.11.
Guard Elijah Harkless is another second-year Sooner after transferring from Cal State-Northridge. Harkless averages 9.7 points per game, 5.1 rebounds and 2.9 assists, but he is the least efficient of the starters with an offensive rating of 0.99.
Forward Jalen Hill is a former four-star recruit and in his third year at Oklahoma. Hill leads the team in rebounds at 6.0 per game and scores 9.2 points per game. Hill is hitting an incredible 80 percent of his twos and leads the Sooners with an offensive rating of 1.30.
Former Kansas State legacy recruit CJ Noland is the sixth man for Oklahoma.
The 6-foot-2 guard scores 5 points per game and is hitting 43.8 percent from beyond the arc. Ethan Chargois is a key backup in the paint and the 6-foot-9 super senior from SMU averages 4.9 points and 2.3 boards per game, while hitting 79 percent from two-point range.
Jacob Groves is the younger brother of Tanner and the fellow Eastern Washington transfer provides more depth inside with his 3.5 points per game and 2.3 rebounds, The younger Groves is only hitting 21.1 percent from three-point territory on 1.6 attempts per game.
SUMMARY AND PREDICTION
HOW TO WATCH: ESPNU
TIP TIME: 7:00 P.M. CST
FAN: The Arkansas comparative score game aside, it is likely a game that will go down to the final four minutes. K-State is as healthy as they've been all year and both teams are well-rested, as Oklahoma last played on December 22 and the Wildcats on December 21. Neither team likes to play super fast, but we'll likely see a pace in the upper 60s. Kansas State breaks out of their poor shooting funk against a good team, but it isn't quite enough to beat a talented Sooner team in Norman. The Wildcats fall, 69-67.
DY: Three things worry me. Oklahoma has played together so much this year and K-State has played together so little. The Sooners are an elite defensive squad thus far and the Wildcats have yet to shoot it well against a solid opponent. And Oklahoma blasted Arkansas into a different universe. I'm also assured by a few things. Kansas State has consistently produced open looks this year. It is Moser's first conference game since entering the league and their offense struggles to take care of it, get to the free throw line and rebound it. A large part of me wants to pick the Wildcats. But I can't. The discrepancy in lineup consistency is a concern and I don't trust the K-State offense. Oklahoma wins, 67-61.
FLANDO: Oklahoma's weaknesses are turnovers and a lack of depth, which are areas Kansas State can exploit. What the Sooners do have is a stout starting five that will give K-State problems on both ends of the floor. Beginning the daunting Big 12 schedule with a win seems important, but it isn't necessary. A loss for the Wildcats would mean that they could be staring down an 0-3 start to conference play, with Texas at home and a trip to West Virginia to follow. That would be unacceptable. I'll take Kansas State to fight hard on defense, have some shots go their way and squeak out the win in Norman. Wildcats pull it out, 67-66.
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