With one regular season game left, Kansas State no longer controls its destiny in the race for a spot in the Big 12 Championship Game. However, the Wildcats can still return to Arlington with the required chaos.
The Wildcats are one of nine teams in contention for a spot in the Big 12 Championship Game. Two teams -- Arizona State and Iowa State -- control their destiny, while the rest need help.
As one of the three-loss teams in the race, the Wildcats will need three of the two-loss teams to lose this week. Those teams are Arizona State, Baylor, BYU, and Colorado. They'll also need to beat Iowa State.
Arizona State is an 8.5-point favorite against Arizona and has a 71.6% to win by ESPN Analytics. The game will kick off at 2:30 p.m. on FOX.
Baylor is a 1.5-point underdog against Kansas, and ESPN Analytics says the Bears have a 51.7 percent to lose. Baylor is the early game on Saturday, kicking off at 11 p.m. on ESPN 2.
BYU will play Houston on Saturday night and is a 13-point favorite. According to ESPN Analytics, BYU has an 87.2 percent chance to win.
Colorado is a 16-point favorite against Oklahoma State and is given an 81.5% chance to win by ESPN Analytics. Colorado will get the action started on Friday afternoon.
Here are the pathways for K-State to make the conference championship on Dec. 7.
Pathway 1
Colorado loses to Oklahoma State
BYU loses to Houston
Baylor loses to Kansas
If Arizona State beats in-state rival Arizona, the Wildcats would be the No. 2 seed in the Big 12 Championship, booking a rematch against Arizona State in Arlington.
If Arizona State loses to Arizona, the Wildcats will be the top seed in the Big 12 and will play the winner of the Texas Tech and West Virginia game in Arlington. If the Red Raiders win, the Wildcats would play Texas Tech and vice versa.
Possible Opponents: Texas Tech, West Virginia, Arizona State
Pathway 2
Arizona State loses to Arizona
BYU loses to Houston
Baylor loses to Kansas
Regardless of the results in other games, K-State will finish as the No. 2 seed in the Big 12 Championship Game. They would play Colorado in Arlington.
The Wildcats traveled to Boulder to play Colorado on Oct. 12.
Possible Opponents: Colorado
Pathway 3
Arizona State loses to Arizona
Colorado loses to Oklahoma State
Baylor loses to Kansas
With BYU winning, K-State could only grab the No. 2 seed in the Big 12 Championship.
BYU and K-State played earlier this season, with BYU handing the Wildcats their first loss of the season.
Possible Opponents: BYU
Pathway 4
Colorado loses to Oklahoma State
Arizona State loses to Arizona
BYU loses to Houston
Texas Tech loses to West Virginia
This is one of the only scenarios where the Texas Tech game could impact K-State's chances of making the Big 12 Championship. In this scenario, the Red Raiders would get the edge over K-State due to conference opponent win percentage.
K-State would play Baylor in the Big 12 Championship, as the Bears defeated Kansas in this scenario. The Wildcats would be the No. 2 seed.
Possible Opponents: Baylor
Pathway 5
Colorado loses to Oklahoma State
Arizona State loses to Arizona
BYU loses to Houston
Baylor loses to Kansas
This is the pure chaos scenario.If all four teams above K-State lose, the Wildcats would book their spot as the top team in the Big 12.
However, their opponent in the championship would depend on other results. The first important game would be Texas Tech and West Virginia. However, the Wildcats could also play Arizona State depending on the results of TCU's game against Cincinnati.
Possible Opponents: Arizona State, Texas Tech, West Virginia
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