After Review: Defense raises Kansas State's ceiling
Let's take a detailed look back at Kansas State's win at Mississippi State, which has propelled the Wildcats to No. 25 in the latest Coaches Poll, in After Review.
Kansas State's defense can keep the Wildcats in many games
Saturday's 31-24 win at then No. 23 Mississippi State in Starkville last Saturday was certainly a team win. Malik Knowles' 100-yard kickoff return for a touchdown tied the game at 24 in the fourth quarter, and then it was the offense who put together a drive late to take the lead, capped by a 15-yard touchdown pass from Skylar Thompson to Dalton Schoen.
While everyone contributed, however, it was the defense that ruled the day.
As I learned from Jimmy Goheen in The Analysis, the Bulldogs - incredibly - had five more offensive possessions in the game than K-State did. Think about that, as I'm not sure I've ever heard of such a gap in possessions in a single game.
And, on three of those possessions, the Bulldogs started at midfield - at least - and on the door-step of the red zone on one instance.
Despite all of those opportunities, the Wildcats only allowed 24 points to a ranked SEC opponent in their home stadium.
A year ago (and without coming anywhere near having five extra possessions), Joe Moorhead's Bulldogs rolled up 538 yards of offense, including 384 on the ground (9.8 yards per carry, too) in blowing out the Wildcats in Manhattan.
Saturday in Starkville, however, Scottie Hazelton's unit limited MSU to 352 yards of offense, with 201 coming on the ground (4.6 yards per rush).
This group was dominant in shutting out Bowling Green 52-0 (The Falcons were 0-13 on third and fourth down tries), and the starters only gave up seven points (none in the first half) in the opener against Nicholls.
I certainly don't expect things to go this well, week-to-week, against the high powered offenses of the Big 12 Conference. I do, however, now expect this unit to be good enough to give the Wildcats a chance to compete for eight or nine wins, something I never, never would have projected going into the season.
PRO FOOTBALL FOCUS RECAP
TOP FIVE OFFENSIVE GRADES (minimum 15 snaps)
1. Skylar Thompson - 74.7 on 53 snaps: Thompson battled total-body cramping, fatigue and, well, generally not feeling well in the second half to lead K-State to a win in the fourth quarter. Man, it feels like Thompson has done that a lot late in games when given the opportunity.
2. James Gilbert - 70.7 on 29 snaps: Gilbert didn't go off on Saturday, but he looked every bit as physical against a Power Five opponent as he did the first two games. This guy is not going to shy away from contact or stop running hard in any situation.
3. Nick Lenners - 67.7 on 34 snaps: Lenners' score was hurt significantly by a drop that took away a first down, which means he was probably K-State's highest rated player on offense outside of that play. He had a key (and much tougher) first-down catch late in the game and also was big as a blocker.
4. Tyler Mitchell - 67.3 on 54 snaps: The offensive line wasn't as dominant as it was the first two weeks, but it also absolutely held its own against a very talented defensive front. Mitchell's physicality is a big reason why.
5. Dalton Schoen - 65.8 on 45 snaps: Schoen, like Lenners, saw a key drop hurt his score. He bounced back big time, though, making two huge catches - and the game winner - in the fourth quarter.
TOP FIVE DEFENSIVE GRADES (minimum 15 snaps)
1. Darreyl Patterson - 82.4 on 16 snaps: Good for Darreyl Patterson. That's a young man who went through some stuff last year, and K-State was thrilled to have him on its roster in Starkville Saturday.
2. Jordan Mittie - 78.1 on 39 snaps: There's not one player I whiffed on harder this preseason than Jordan Mittie. Bluntly, I thought he was 'just a guy' last year on the defensive line. This year, he's been K-State's best defensive linemen so far.
3. Denzel Goolsby - 70.3 on 67 snaps: Goolsby had a key interception early in the contest to help set the defensive tone, and he also combined with Patterson for a key pass-break-up in the end zone to preserve the lead late.
4. Daniel Green - 68.6 on 43 snaps: K-State isn't fibbing when it says Green is essentially a third starting linebacker, as he rotates regularly with Da'Quan Patton and Elijah Sullivan. He also keeps finding himself in the right place, with a fumble recovery against the Bulldogs.
5. Joe Davies - 66.8 on 16 snaps: To give you a sense of K-State's defensive tackle depth right now, the No. 6 and No. 7 scores were locked down by Trey Dishon and Eli Huggins. So, four of the top seven PFF scores from this game went to defensive tackles. Give it up for Mike Tuiasosopo, everybody!
ONE GOOD THING
Just one?
I'll go with the fact Kansas State is about to enter quite possibly the most well-placed bye in the history of sports.
Perhaps some exaggeration there, okay, but it's a pretty good time for a bye.
The Wildcats aren't terribly healthy on defense, as starters Wyatt Hubert and Walter Neil both missed the Mississippi State game and reserve linebacker Cody Fletcher hasn't played a snap yet this year.
I expect all three to be available when K-State travels to Oklahoma State in two weeks.
Aside from a chance to get healthy, the Wildcats now get to hit the recruiting trail with a shiny new 'No. 25' proudly displayed by their name, an undefeated record and a marquee win at Mississippi State.
Derek Young lets you know where they'll be this week in this thread.
ONE BAD THING
As you probably have already figured out, the heading, 'One Bad Thing' kind of forces me to find something to nitpick following Saturday's win, and I'll go with the running game.
For starters, though, I don't think it was a problem in the contest. K-State had enough success on the ground to extend some drives, finish some drives and to force MSU to honor play action. It was a play-action pass, after all, in which Schoen came wide open on the game-winning score.
On the flip side, however, a running game that was averaging an astronomical 350 yards a contest did come back to earth a bit. K-State ran for 146 yards against the Bulldogs while averaging 4.6 yards per carry. Starter James Gilbert, who ran hard and impacted K-State's win, was limited to an average of 3.5 yards an attempt on 17 carries.
I continue to feel Jordon Brown is a bit under-used, as on just five carries against the Bulldogs he produced K-State's longest rush (17 yards), a 7-yard touchdown run and averaged 8.2 yards an attempt on five carries. This comes a week after Brown ran for 64 yards on just four carries (16.0 yards a rush) and a 50-yard touchdown against Bowling Green.
How do you get Brown more carries? I'm not totally sure, to be blunt, as I don't think it's really wise to reduce Gilbert's workload. He deserves what he's getting, too.
That's why guys like Chris Klieman and running backs coach Brian Anderson get paid to make those decisions, and I'm writing about them. They've figured it out, so far, and I imagine they'll find a way to feature Brown more going forward.
ONE BIG QUESTION
I referenced K-State's ceiling in the opening, but what exactly is that ceiling, now?
I still think games against Oklahoma in Manhattan and at Texas have to be penciled in as losses. The Sooners are again a real national title contender, and Texas appears to be a legitimate Top 10 team. Both are significantly better than the Mississippi State team K-State knocked off last Saturday.
While I mean everything I just wrote, don't forget - to be fair - how many times I told you to pencil in a Mississippi State loss before the season, too.
But, for argument's sake, if you chalk those two up as Ls that leaves you looking at the remaining games working off with three (current) wins and two projected losses.
At Oklahoma State
Vs. Baylor
Vs. TCU
At Kansas
Vs. West Virginia
At Texas Tech
Vs. Iowa State
As wild as this sounds, I'm not sure odds makers would make K-State the underdog in any of these games aside from the upcoming road trip to Stillwater.
That doesn't mean I'd pick the Wildcats to go 6-1 in those seven games, but it's not ridiculous for optimistic observers to hope for that. If that were to happen, and everything else stays status quo, you're looking at a nine-win season.
I think that's the new ceiling. I projected six wins heading into the season; I'd now set an over/under win total closer to 7.5.
THE KSO SUNDAY SHOW
MORE MISSISSIPPI STATE GAME COVERAGE
-Opinion: K-State sends doubters back to drawing board
-Klieman post-game press conference
-Watch Wildcats celebrate after win
***Subscribe to K-StateOnline by clicking here***
Talk K-State football in the largest, most active K-State message board community anywhere, The Foundation.