7/30/2019 football Edit

Preview & Prediction: Baylor

Baylor will likely go as far as quarterback Charlie Brewer can take them. (USA Today)

Matt Hall • EMAWOnline

Managing Editor

LAST YEAR

Baylor head Coach Matt Rhule improved the Bears from 1-11 two seasons ago to a 7-6 mark in 2018, but the Bears only had two wins over bowl eligible teams: 35-31 at home over Oklahoma State and 45-38 over Vanderbilt in the Texas Bowl. Both the Cowboys and Commodores won six regular-season games.

So, while Baylor was clearly improved, they weren't good enough to beat good teams. The other wins came against Abilene Christian, UTSA, Kansas, and Kansas State. The Bears struggled to compete in losses to Duke (40-27), Oklahoma (66-33), West Virginia (54-18) and Iowa State (28-14). To their credit, they did have one-score losses against both Texas and TCU.

Long story short, Baylor took care of business against the teams they were clearly supposed to beat last year, but against equal or better competition the Bears didn't look ready to move up another notch.

WHO ARE THEY?

The Bears are still quietly loaded with skill position talent. It would be hard to find a better duo of receivers in the league than Denzel Mims and Chris Platt. Tailback Tristan Ebner ran for 413 yards on 69 carries last season (6.0 yards per rush), and he's been good enough for Baylor to try leading rusher John Lovett at safety. Ebner carried 17 times for 100 yards in last year's contest with K-State.

For this team to be able to truly contend with the Big 12 Conference, though, major questions need to be answered along the offensive line as well as some issues along the defensive line and defensive backfield.

There's enough talent on hand for Baylor to take another small step forward, I believe, but I don't know how much of that will be reflected in the Bears' final record compared to last year.

WHO TO WATCH?

For me, it's easily quarterback Charlie Brewer.

Brewer capped off the 2018 season with a monster performance against Vanderbilt in the Texas Bowl, throwing for 384 yards and rushing for 109 more and accounting for three total touchdowns.

Rhule and Baylor feel great about Brewer, but I do have some concerns. I thought he was very shaky in the pocket against K-State last year, regularly leaving a clean pocket to run into a sack or create pressure that wouldn't have existed had he stayed put and been calm.

So, it wasn't shocking to see Baylor gave up a league-high 39 sacks last season, and I think that's as much on Brewer as it is the offensive line.

K-STATE WINS BECAUSE...

This is the Big 12 Conference home opener for the Wildcats. I've picked them to lose back-to-back one score games on the road the previous two contests, meaning I've got them at just 2-2 heading into this one.

No, that won't make this a "must-win," but it may sure feel like it. I think K-State will come out more energized and focused than any other game on the schedule (except Kansas) with its backs against the wall, and I like the match-up, too.

The Wildcats absolutely shredded Baylor on the ground last year in Waco, and I think they'll have some success on the ground in this one, too.

K-STATE LOSES BECAUSE...

I think Baylor is noticeably better than K-State at the offensive skill positions and has a group of players going into their third year under Rhule and his system, as opposed to K-State being in its first year of a reset.

I think Platt and Mims are the type of athletes who can break a close game open and give the Bears more opportunities to strike for a couple touchdowns on short drives, while K-State is likely going to have to win more plays on longer scoring drives.

Baylor does return all three of last year's starting linebackers, too, which should help against K-State's running game.

PRESEASON PREDICTION: Kansas State 28, Baylor 24

I think the Wildcats get this done and move to 3-2 on the season and 1-1 in league play. I don't necessarily think Baylor is getting over hyped, but I'd also be very surprised if they're more than a seven or eight win team. I expect Chris Klieman and company to win a couple of home games against league foes, and this one seems about as likely as any of them.

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