KSO Running Diary: The Road Ends

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7:02 a.m.: Looks like it's time again for yet another Running Diary of a K-State NCAA Tournament contest!

Let's start off, like we always seem to, with a #WadeWatch2k18 prediciton:

I don't expect to see Dean Wade on the court tonight for K-State.

I think the fact the 6-foot-10 junior wasn't available to go back into the game when K-State desperately needed a presence inside in the second half against Kentucky tells you all you need to know. That, plus he wasn't made available to the media yesterday for the first time since the Wildcats were announced to be in the NCAA Tournament.

Expect Bruce Weber to start the same bunch he has throughout this tourney: Kam Stokes, Cartier Diarra, Barry Brown, Xavier Sneed and Makol Mawien.

7:41 a.m.: Let's keep the predictions rolling (J-Mart will have a fancy dancy prediction piece up here at 9:00 a.m.) from myself and Flando.

I like K-State 59-55 and expect an extremely low scoring battle tonight in Atlanta. Took Barry Brown to be the difference maker and expect him to be able to shoot at a higher percentage than he did against Kentucky.

Flando likes the Wildcats, too, 65-61 and sees big things for Magic Mike McGuirl off the Wildcat bench.

7:46 a.m.: Do you have a similar need for Sneed?

7:52 a.m.: Nice work again from Mr. Flando producing The KSO Show this morning from Atlanta. Hopefully there's some knowledge dropped in here. Or at least some entertainment.

8:47 a.m.: Just so people have a sense of how tight tonight's game is expected to be - and the challenge Loyola should provide K-State - most betting lines have this game ranging anywhere from a pick 'em to K-State by 1.5.

The Wildcats are incredibly fortunate to have an opportunity to play a No. 11 seed for the right to go to the Final Four, but this is an 11 seed that's already beat at No. 6 seed, a No. 3 seed and a No. 7 seed to earn its right to play K-State tonight.

Don't take anything for granted.

10:35 a.m.: We couldn't line things up to get ksu_FAN on the pod this morning. But, I can steal his great work that he posted on The Foundation about this matchup and share it here for you all to read.

Here goes:

I didn't have time to watch quite as much from Loyola, but enough to get a decent feel.

The normal team and individual stats will be coming in Study Hall, but I've included a dual chart with Mo Valley only stats and their last 6 games for individuals at the bottom.

K-State will be facing another hot team in Loyola Chicago. The Ramblers have won 13 straight and 20 of their last 21 games. Similar to Creighton, Loyola is one of the better shooting teams in the country, ranking #7 in eFG% at 57.8% while shooting 56.6% on 2s (#12) and 39.9% on 3s (#15). However, they shoot fewer threes, with only 35.7% of their shots (#217) coming from behind the arc. They can be turnover prone with a rate of 18.8% (#209) and aren’t a great offensive rebounding team at only 22.3% (#332).

Their offense features a lot of read and react philosophy, namely a 4 out 1 in that focuses on driving to the paint with kickouts and some ball screens mixed in. The constant movement with multiple guards and guys that can score it will make them tough to guard as their 1.12 efficiency (#67) would indicate.

Defensively the Ramblers are mainly a man team that will occasionally mix in a 2-3 zone. They have been solid all year, allowing only 0.96 efficiency (#24) led by great eFG% defense at 47.6% (#35). Opponents shoot 46.9% on 2s (#56) without a great block percentage (6.6% - #290) and only 32.6% on 3s (#36). They are also decent at forcing TOs (19.8% - #85) and keeping opponents off the offensive glass (25.8% - #55). Finally, opponents only get to the FT line at a rate of 25.3% (#15).

Loyola likes to play at a slow pace with only 65.1 possessions per game (#319), with an identical 18.3 seconds per possession on offense and defense. In the last 6 games through the MVC tournament and the NCAAs, all do or die games for the Ramblers, the pace has slowed even more to only 61.8 possessions per game. The offense has cooled off a bit in that stretch to only 1.02 efficiency, but the defense has stiffened to only 0.93 allowed.

Loyola features 5 guys that all score in double figures for the season, so match ups will be interesting for K-State and team defense will be at a premium. Guards Clayton Custer (6-0), Marcus Townes (6-4), and Donte Ingram (6-6) all average 11 or better while forwards Cameron Krutwig (6-9) and Aundre Jackson (6-5) both average over 10. Ben Richardson (6-3) and Lucas Williamson (6-4) also contribute.

In MVC games only, Custer bumped to over 15 per game and Krutwig over 12, but in the last 6 the leading scorers have been Jackson at nearly 11, and Townes and Ingram at just over 10 each. Custer has struggled a little bit down the stretch. Jackson has been Loyola’s version of Teddy Allen (from WVU) as a guy that only plays about 20 minutes, but gives instant offense with a points per 100 rate leading the team in the mid 30s, mainly on 2s. Custer and Ingram are the best 3PT shooters, but Richardson and Townes are also threats and Williams has hit some shots lately.

I’d guess we’ll start Barry on Custer, as he makes the Ramblers go, with Sneed on Ingram. Diarra, Kam, and McGuirl can rotate on Richardson, Townes, and Williamson, while Mak and Stockard will get the match up with Krutwig and Jackson. Sneed can slide down on Jackson if we are going really small or get foul trouble. If Dean is getting some minutes, Krutwig isn’t a bad match either as he won’t be able to attack with near the quickness that we saw from Kentucky’s bigs. Also, we’ll be switching a lot against Loyola’s guard movement, so our guys will be forced to guard nearly all of Loyola’s roster.

Defensively, Loyola is a solid man to man team, but we should be able to get to the rim and finish much better than we did against Kentucky, especially without the length or a rim protector. K-State only hit 10-32 on 2s on Thursday (31.3%) and we should be able to hit 2s at a 50% or better clip on Saturday. We’ll need to hit some 3s, but we won’t have to rely on the outside shot like we did vs Kentucky.

The main numbers to watch will be keeping Loyola under a .95 efficiency (they are 1-4 when held to that this year) and under 50% on 2s (they are 3-4). It’s a bit hard to judge their schedule, as they only played 1 regular season game against a Top 100 team, but that one was a win at Florida. The biggest key in that game was Florida settling for 3s and only making 2 out of 19 attempts.

I really think K-State's defense will come to play and be able to hold Loyola under 1.00 efficiency and probably even better. We're going to see another grinder game and it will come down to how efficient K-State can be on offense. I still believe Barry is primed for a break out scoring game and perhaps Mak finally approaches production similar to the Big 12 tournament against a smaller Loyola front line.

K-State 60 - Loyola 52

-ksu_FAN

10:40 a.m.: Let's keep the prediction train rolling on, with thoughts from the Managing Editor of this whole shindig, J-Mart:

11:02 a.m.: If I weren't fortunate enough to be here, I'd want to be in Aggieville.

It's about to be serious there.

11:06 a.m.: To kill time, Flando and I are about to head to the mall to rotate between the Microsoft store and the place with all the fancy massage chairs.

Gonna go back and forth from Fortnite to relaxing.

This is not an exaggeration, this is really how we are going to spend our afternoon.

That and me periodically updating this diary until we get to the arena.

If you want to do something to let some time fly by, maybe watch these videos from Flando?

2:24 p.m.: Sure, you could say this for any game, but I'm fascinated to see what happens in the first five minutes or so.

In the two games in which K-State was the lower seed it raced out to big leads immediately against Creighton and Kentucky. The opposite happened when the Wildcats took on No. 16 seed UMBC, as they were forced to dig out of an early 10-2 hole.

The game isn't going to be won or lost by the first media timeout, but you can be sure Bruce Weber doesn't want to see another slow start against a double-digit seed.

3:26 p.m.: Riding to the arena now with Flando. Really have been pretty calm throughout the day but certainly starting to feel the anxiousness now. Trying to decide if winning this game tonight would classify as the biggest victory in Kansas State sports history. Hopefully it's a discussion we're able to have later this evening.

3:35 p.m.: J-Mart is ready.

3:37 p.m.: #WadeWatch2k18 rolls on, as a Tweet from Chase Shannon shows Dean Wade arriving in a boot today. A couple thoughts:

1. This isn't shocking, as Wade as typically been in a boot at all times when he's not practicing or playing.

2. That said, I'm still not expecting him to play today for the Wildcats.

As I talked about before the Kentucky game, Wade's positioning on the bench tonight will tell you if there's any chance of him going. He sat at the end, beyond a manager, for Creighton and UMBC. He started the UK game right by Coach Korn on the bench before playing.

4:09 p.m.: Wade warming up, no boot.

We shall see.

4:12 p.m.: We'll see how this place looks when we tip off, but I saw much, much more purple than I had at any point of this tournament outside of the arena and on the way into the game today. We'll see how large of a group it is, but there's no doubt a good number of K-State fans made the financial sacrifice and put in the time to make it down to Atlanta.

4:15: Well said, Derek Young.

4:23 p.m.: As always, Flando provides you with some pre-game pictures. The final one is a link that will take you to his photo gallery, which will be added to and updated through the game.

4:29 p.m.: Just watched Andy Katz have a lengthy talk with K-State SID Tom Gilbert right in front of me to ideally lay out how he'd like to meet with Bruce Weber if K-State were to win the game. Sure seemed like a polite dude to me.

And his last name is Katz.

5:01: p.m. It's the expected starters for K-State: Mawien, Sneed, Diarra, Stokes, Brown.

For Loyola it's Ingram (6-6 Sr.), Krutwig (6-9 Fr.), Townes (6-4 Jr.), Custer (6-1 Jr.), Richardson (6-3 Sr.).

5:10 p.m.: Wade split the difference on the bench. He's not at the end, but he's also not by Coach Korn. Seated behind Wainright and Stockard.

Nice move inside by Krutwig for a basket; his width could be an issue for a much leaner Mawien, who just picked up a foul right over a minute into the game helping on a baseline drive.

Mawien has a nice move himself but cannot finish at the rim. Stokes just had a three rattle out, offense is somewhat cold like it was at the start of the UMBC game.

Sneed is still hot, knocking down a three to give K-State its first points and put the Wildcats up 3-2 at the 17:30 mark before Custer comes right back with a basket for the Ramblers.

Brown gets a nice roll after losing Richardson on a pull-up, but Richardson comes right back and nails an open three from the corner to make it 7-5 Loyola.

Mawien misses another inside, his offensive rhythm has been off ever since K-State got to Atlanta, and Towns gets another for Loyola. Stockard is coming in for a struggling Mawien.

Ingram knocks down a three for Loyola, and Weber is forced to call a timeout.

It's not as bad as the UMBC start, but K-State has found itself in a similar hole. The Ramblers are getting very good looks almost every possession, while everything is work on the offensive end for the Wildcats.

5:20 p.m.: Brown has a shot roll out, and the Ramblers come down and get another big three-pointer from Richardson.

A charge on the Wildcats gives the ball back to Loyola at the 14:12 mark and the first media timeout.

All the energy in the building is on the Ramblers' side, and K-State clearly has to be careful at this point not to dig too big of a hole against a team that's going to put a lot of pressure on them on both ends of the floor.

The Ramblers are shooting 75 percent from the floor and 100 percent from three-point range. K-State has started just 2-of-8.

Loyola leads 15-5.

5:29 p.m.: Wade has moved to the end of the bench, a sign he's not available to go.

McGuirl gets a much needed basket for K-State, but Richardson comes right back with an easy, uncontested finish at the rim. The concern is not just the score, but how easy everything is for the Ramblers right now.

McGuirl misses a wide open three from the corner, and now Loyola is content to slow the pace down on this possession.

Another very easy drive for Jackson and the Ramblers for a lay-up over Mawien, but Mawien does finish against a triple team inside to keep the deficit at 10.

Mawien fronts the post and creates a turnover, and a lightly kicked ball results in a kicked ball violation that wipes a Sneed three off the board.

Loyola is still dominating the game at the moment, shooting 80 percent to K-State's 36.4 percent and winning the rebounding battle 7-2.

This is easily the longest stretch K-State has trailed in the tournament, as they've probably been behind less than 10 minutes total of the 120 they had played coming into this game.

5:35 p.m.: McGuirl attempts a drive to the hoop but has his shot swatted out of bounds, Fortunately Sneed takes the inbounds pass and drives for score.

Another easy layup for Loyola, who is having no problem carving up the K-State defense.

K-State currently comes off to me as fatigued, even a player like McGuirl who just recently entered is gasping for air, while Loyola appears fresh.

Sneed is keeping K-State in it, hitting another three. He was also fouled on the release with no call.

Yet ANOTHER easy layup at the rim. K-State's rotations are simply not getting there possession after possession. Mawien misses a wild shot then gives up an offensive rebound to Krutwig for an easy putback and a 25-14 Loyola lead.

The rebounds are currently 10-4 in favor of the Ramblers, who - to their credit - are simply outworking K-State right now.

Mawien with a nice catch and finish inside to cut it back down to nine. K-State needs to string together a couple of stops at some point, and the Wildcats just got very fortunate to see another open three foll out.

Mawien just picked up his second foul trying to grab an offensive rebounds, which will bring Stockard back in.

I would be tempted to try the super small ball group if I were Bruce Weber. Neither of K-State's bigs have shown the ability to make a difference on the glass so far.

It's 25-16 with 7:49 left in the first half. As rough as things have felt, K-State has a shot to close within five points or so to end the half and feel good about themselves going into the locker room.

5:48 p.m.: LUC turns it over coming out of the break. Nice grab on press row by Wyatt Thompson.

Brown steps back to drain a jumper, and K-State has whittled it down to a seven-point deficit. K-State's crowd is making itself heard for the first time.

Very nice feed inside from McGuirl to Stockard, who was fouled and has a chance to go to the line for two.

First free throws of the game for either time, much different than Thursday night's game. Stockard swishes the first but misses the second, making it 25-19.

Loyola is playing quicker than K-State at virtually every position, though, putting K-State in constant scrambles on defense, leading to another layup.

Amazing finish by Brown to answer right back while being fouled, he'll go to the line with a shot at a three-point play and to trim the lead to just five. He converts.

K-State is fortunate to come out of a wild scramble with the ball. I can't remember the last time I saw this defense get beat off the dribble so easily and be forced to help constantly.

Sneed has a three just roll off that would have cut it to just two.

It's crazy, but I'm not sure K-State doesn't need to go zone. They can't stay in front of anybody. Another drive to the hoop forced help and opened up a cutter for a layup and foul. The three-point play makes it 30-22 Loyola.

Stokes misses a wild attempt inside at the end of the shot clock after Sneed passed up a look at a three. Another possession comes up empty when Sneed has it stripped attacking the basket, but fortunately Richardson missed a good look at a three.

5:52 p.m.: Brown misses a step-back out of the timeout, and it's five guys on the boards for LUC and zero for K-State.

Krutwig works Stockard inside for an easy finish with a foul. Both Stockard and Mawien have two, and neither appear able of keeping Krutwig from backing his way down to the rim. The lead is back to 11.

James Love is being brought off the bench for his first action, which I think is a wise thing to try. He's got by far the most size and bulk of any of K-State's bigs.

Brown with another nice finish at the rim to cut it to 33-24 at the two-minute mark.

5:56 p.m.: Custer misses a wide-open look at a three, but K-State can't control the rebound. They were also fortunate Krutwig missed a gimme at the hoop that may have been goal-tended by Love.

Brown can't catch up to a long outlet, turning it back over to LUC. A solid defensive possession gives it back to K-State, but Brown misses at the rim then Stokes misses a jumper. Brown doesn't keep playing on the possession, complaining to the ref about what he thought was a foul.

Richardson knocks down another three on the other end, and Brown dribbles it off his feet out of bounds to end the first half.

Sadly for K-State, it was a fitting end to the half.

***HALFTIME SCORE: LOYOLA 36, K-STATE 24***

K-State isn't out of this game, but the Wildcats are going have to come out and chip away at this lead almost immediately out of halftime. The Wildcats aren't scoring enough or playing at a fast enough pace to stay down 10-plus points for a long stretch of this second half.

*If I were K-State, I'd throw in a few possessions of zone here and there on defense. LUC is driving by defenders at will, at Krutwig is having his way inside. I know the Wildcats are a man-to-man team and have been elite defensively throughout this tournament, but I feel like they need to do something to make Loyola think more on its offensive possessions.

*The pace is going to need to be picked up a little bit on offense. The Wildcats aren't getting good shots in the half court, and they're compounding the problem by not scoring and taking 25 seconds off the game clock each possession. They're unintentionally shortening a game while they are in a relatively big hole.

I'd be surprised if K-State, through sheer grit if nothing else, doesn't get back into this game at some point in this half. The concern is how easy things looked for Loyola. That script needs to flip in the second half, and every offensive possession for Loyola needs to feel like a battle for the Ramblers.

6:26 p.m.: Stokes has a good look a three roll off to start the half, would have been a big shot to grab momentum right out of the break.

Ingram doesn't miss his chance to give LUC a spark immediately, though, draining a long jumper.

Mawien is going to have to come out of the game shortly if he can't find a way to collect himself and play poised, as he airballs a wild attempt out of bounds instead of kicking the ball out.

Mawien passes it out despite having a 6-foot-1 Clayton Custer on him on a switch right under the hoop. K-State gets fortunate, however, as they swing it to Diarra for a three-pointer.

Ingram answers right back with another easy finish inside, making it 40-27 Loyola.

Mawien grabs an offensive rebound off a Diarra missed three when Custer was switched on to him once again, and Diarra gets a tough finish at the basket to cut it back down to 11.

Richardson rises up and knocks down another three-pointer as Stokes fouls him for a chance at a four-point play. I think it was the right call. Richardson makes the free throw to complete a four-point possession and make it a 15-point game.

I think Custer fouled Diarra three different times on that drive, finally getting called for it as Diarra missed an attempt in the paint. The freshman keeps K-State hanging on, making both free throws and trimming it to 44-31.

Diarra pushes again, and although he missed it created an opportunity for a Sneed tip in. Right as K-State gets back in it, Krutwig slips open again for a lay-up. Brown has a three rattle out, and the Wildcats don't have a player within 10 feet of grabbing the rebound.

Not a good start to the half. LUC is still appearing to have more energy and is getting easy baskets against K-State. The Wildcats are also continuing to have a number of offensive possessions that don't give them a look until the end of the shot clock.

6:30 p.m.: Custer hits a three, and K-State is in danger of getting run out of the gym. Stokes misses a layup and yells at the official, and Ingram gets an easy layup - again - to put LUC up 52-33.

The analysis is simple at this point, LUC looks like a fresh team and the Wildcats appear drained physically. That's not an excuse - both have played the same number of games throughout this tournament - but the difference in energy level has been apparent since the opening tip.

K-State struggles to score without Dean Wade on the offensive end - they're averaging right around 60 points this tournament - and unfortunately for the Wildcats somebody is putting them in a hole by hitting shots at a high level.

6:39 p.m.: The Ramblers are shooting 87.5 percent from the field this half and 62.9 percent for the game.

They've hit a couple of tough shots, sure, but for the most part they're shooting so well due to getting great looks virtually every trip down the floor. K-State is only shooting 33.3 percent this half and 35.9 percent for the game, and offensively they typically aren't penetrating inside the three-point line any time before less than 10 seconds remain on the shot clock.

This really isn't meant to be a criticism of what K-State is doing. Playing this style against Creighton, UMBC and Kentucky got them to the Elite 8. You have to play to your personality and have faith in what you do. It's not a lack of effort, either. The Ramblers have just been the better team for the first 28 minutes.

6:44 p.m.: K-State had cut it from 21 to 16, but Richardson got himself wide open for another three-pointer in the corner as K-State tried to scramble off a switch and knocked it down. Then a turnover created a chance for the Ramblers to get out and run, which they converted to go back up by 21, tying their biggest lead.

Another layup leads to a 23-point lead, and LUC's Williamson easily could have kicked it out to an open three-pointer shooter had he chosen to.

6:53 p.m.: To K-State's credit, the Wildcats have absolutely attempted to increase the pace of the game and attack the basket quicker. Again, what's happening here isn't a question of effort or intention, but instead of execution and production.

Loyola has it tonight; K-State doesn't. As painful as it for the Wildcats and their fans, it simply happens sometimes in basketball.

Very nice play by Wainright to tip away an entry pass attempt down 21 with seven minutes to go. You have to appreciate them not letting their effort diminish down the stretch.

Sneed makes a deep three to cut it down to an 18-point deficit.

Stokes follows with another three to cut it down to 15 points with six minutes left.

It's hard to picture K-State truly getting back in this, but the effort over the last four or five minutes does speak to this group's resolve.

6:58 p.m.: Stokes has another three that was as close to falling as perhaps physically possible rim out that would have cut it to 12 after a huge Sneed block.

Now an amazing finish by Stokes, and K-State has it back to 13.

Richardson gets wide open for another look from three as K-State applies pressure, and he knocks down his sixth in seven attempts tonight to stop the bleeding for the Ramblers.

I am pretty sure I heard a stat that Richardson had scored 14 points so far in this tournament coming in to tonight. He has 21 in this one.

K-State doesn't collapse after the make, as Stokes is fouled to earn a 1-and-1 attempt at the line, swishing both.

Wainright with two AMAZING effort plays, getting another steal and then flying in from out of nowhere ti tip in a miss. It's not 64-52 Loyola.

Virtually everybody predicted this to be a low scoring game, and K-State is basically about on pace for what you would have expected from them. The fact that Loyola is shooting 52.9 percent from three and 57.8 percent from the floor is the difference and what has earned the Ramblers this edge.

7:04 p.m.: Rough possession there for K-State after a great defensive trip gave them the ball back down 12, as Wainright ended up launching up a three out of rhythm as nothing developed. Cutting it inside 10 there would have given you some hope.

A foul puts Townes at the line for the Ramblers, and he makes both to take it back out to 14.

Brown has a three-pointer rattle out that may have been K-State's last chance, and then a tough call goes against K-State as Sneed attempted to take a charge. LUC got the call and a three-point play that made it 69-52. The six-point swing there sealed it.

7:10 p.m.: K-State keeps batting through the end of this one. Stokes got his way to the line and made both, before Brown got knocked down on a drive to earn a 1-and-1 that he made the front end before falling short on the second.

Richardson remains huge for the Ramblers, knocking down a pair of free throws at the two minute mark.

Stokes with another nice finish - he's been very good in the second half for K-State. The Wildcats are going to continue sending LUC to the line while they're in the 1-and-1, hoping for a miss on the front end, but they aren't getting it.

As well as the Ramblers have shot, they're also 100 percent from the foul line.

Stokes again finishes inside immediately for the Wildcats. He's got 11 points alone in the second half to go along with two assists, two boards and no turnovers after halftime.

I should have typed Loyola was 100 percent from the line early, as two just bounced off.

Sneed drops in another three, cutting it to 73-62 with a minute left.

If you fell in love with this K-State team because of the determination they played with, it shouldn't change after this one. They're simply losing to a better group today - one who's about to win its 14th straight game - but they're working every second of this game in an attempt to battle back.

Another miss at the free-throw line. This is clearly my fault for not pulling the jinx trigger earlier.

A play that really emphasizes what K-State has attempted to do down the stretch, as the Wildcats - playing small again - grabbed three offensive rebounds over the outstretched arms of the Ramblers, but none of the shots they gained would fall.

***FINAL SCORE: LOYOLA 78, K-STATE 62***

Nothing that happened today should negatively effect what K-State accomplished in this tournament.

It's been said plenty, but it's worth mentioning one more time. K-State got to the Elite 8 - and a game of the Final Four - getting seven minutes in the first half of one game from Dean Wade, it's first-team All-Big 12 selection.

The Wildcats beat Kentucky despite being down one with 92 seconds left and without Wade, Sneed, Mawien or Stockard available to play.

K-State fans have clamored for a group that plays with tenacity and effort. They've got that. And that group also happened to reach the Elite 8.

It stings today. But in the future, it will be the memories that matter.