Prediction: Can K-State vanquish Kentucky to roll into Elite Eight?
No one can possibly know what to expect from tonight’s Sweet 16 showdown between fifth-seeded Kentucky and No. 9 Kansas State, but we can learn a lot from the teams both schools have played already, including a couple of common opponents.
Remember Georgia and its big man, Yante Maten? Well, in a 62-49 UK victory on March 9, Maten finished with just nine points on 2-of-10 shooting and four rebounds in 33 minutes.
But a 6-foot-1 guard named Tyree Crump for the Bulldogs went for 17, drilling four threes.
Earlier in the season, during Kentucky’s 83-76 comeback victory against West Virginia in the SEC-Big 12 Challenge, Mountaineers guard Jevon Carter and Beetle Bolden combined for 43 points (!), including 9-of-15 from distance.
Last weekend in the NCAA Tournament, the blue Wildcats didn’t hit a single three-pointer in Kentucky’s 78-73 defeat of Davidson in the first round. But the red Wildcats drilled 11-of-33. Unfortunately, Davidson only made 24-of-61 overall, which was the problem, because the red Wildcats took care of the ball, too, turning it over only nine times.
It was a reversal of fortunes in the next game against Buffalo, though, as the Bulls were ice cold from distance, connecting on just 22.6 percent (7-of-31) from three-point range.
That’s now an upset happens.
How about the last time Kentucky lost? It was 19 days ago, an 80-67 setback on March 3. Florida junior guard Jalen Hudson got hot, hitting three three-pointers, and the Gators made 10-of-24 threes.
See where I’m going with this?
K-State is going to have to make shots, and probably make shots from deep, which seem to be available against Kentucky.
That’s the only way to advance, as far as I can see.
Defensively, you know what to expect from the purple Cats. They’re going to bring the challenge, and UK might struggle for stretches. But will K-State’s offense suddenly seem full of life with the expected return of Dean Wade, the team’s leading scorer and best passer?
Perhaps, but likely in spurts - due to his availability and how inconsistent the purple Cats have been on that end throughout the season.
Barry Brown is going to get points. Beyond that, it’s basically a crap-shoot. Is Good Kam going to show up? If so, that’s a bonus. Is Mike McGuirl going to score when he’s on the floor? Is Cartier Diarra going to look for his shot?
And finally, is this the game that Xavier Sneed regains his stroke? Shouts to bornploopers - X is 5 of his last 34 attempts from distance.
Amazingly, he's still a 32 percent shooter from deep, which isn’t great but in this system, when those shots are available, he has to take them. And, because the numbers suggest as much, at some point, he’ll make a few.
Is “some point” tonight? We’ll see.
PREDICTION: Kentucky 71, Kansas State 65