MEMPHIS - It's time to go deep in our official Preview & Prediction for Kansas State's AutoZone Liberty Bowl match-up with Navy.

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First, some context for the numbers I'll show you shortly (pictures below).

By most strength of schedule metrics, Navy faced a strength of schedule that ranked in the 70s, while K-State played a SOS ranking as high as the 20s and as low as the lower 40s.

Navy faced three opponents that rank in the Top 25 of the combined FEI and SP+ metrics in Memphis, Notre Dame, and Air Force, plus SMU and Tulane were top 50. K-State also played three in the Top 25 in Oklahoma, Baylor, and Iowa State, plus Texas, OSU, TCU and Miss State in the top 50.

Navy faced five Top 50 offenses and three Top 50 defenses, while the Cats played seven Top 50 offenses and four Top 50 defenses.

On the other end, Navy faced five opponents ranked 70 or worse overall and five offenses and four defenses. K-State saw three ranked 70 or worse and four offenses and four defenses. This does not include the FCS opponent both teams faced.

Navy's schedule is weaker, but the impressive offensive numbers aren't completely built on smoke and mirrors, either. This is will be one of the top two or three offenses K-State has played this year by any metric, regardless of Navy playing in the AAC.

Navy offense

Any offense that averages nearly seven yards per play and scores over three points per drive is very good. The Midshipmen score touchdowns on 44% of their drives and only punt 25% of the time. In Bill Connelly's SP+ stats, this is one of the best run teams in the country, ranking No. 11 overall and an impressive No. 9 nationally in explosiveness.

The passing game isn't particularly efficient, but features big plays as the No. 2 explosiveness ranking shows. However, the Midshipmen don't protect well - with a sack rate of No. 130 - and have a success rate when throwing of only No. 90. Those numbers are combined with a completion rate of only No. 122. Navy is also extremely efficient when inside the 40-yard-line, averaging 5.66 points per drive in those situations with a low field goal rate of only 6.8%.

Navy defense

The defense is solid, but not nearly as impressive as the offense.

Navy does rank fairly high in Connelly's rushing SP+, but allow success rates, efficiency, and explosiveness in the 40s. The pass defense is not great and allows an explosiveness, ranking with one of the worst marks in the country at No. 124. However, the Midshipmen do force turnovers at a decent clip (nearly 15%) and have a solid havoc rate of 18.6%. Also of note is a power success rate that ranks only No. 108: This measures successful runs on third or fourth-and-two (or less) or any goal to goal run of two yards or less. If K-State stays on track running the ball, this is something that K-State will face quite a bit. And, third down efficiency has been a strength for the Cats' offense.

Navy special teams

This could be the difference in the game, especially when looking at K-State's kickoff return efficiency (No. 42) vs Navy's kickoff efficiency (No. 85). Navy's return game hasn't been much of a threat, but when the Midshipmen do have to punt they do a good job.

-Jimmy Goheen (@ksu_FAN on Twitter)

Navy Rush Offense vs. K-State Rush Defense

Navy PFF Grades: Rushing (86.6), Run Blocking (80.0)

K-State's opposing PFF Grades: Run Defense (72.0), Tackling (41.0)

Average YPG & Rank: Navy - 363.7 (1st), K-State - 152.3 (61st)

Notes: Navy doesn't just lead the nation in rushing, the Midshipmen lead by roughly 65 yards a game over the No. 2 team (Army). Air Force ranks third, and the top ranked Power Five team (Kentucky) averages 90 fewer rush yards per game than Navy.

Navy doesn't just pile up rushing yards; it comes in chunks. The Midshipmen average 6.07 yards a carry. For comparison, Oklahoma averages 6.08; K-State checks in a 4.44 yards a rush. For the season K-State allows 4.91 yards a rush.

Navy Pass Offense vs. K-State Rush Defense

Navy PFF Grades: Passing (62.5), Receiving (71.3), Pass Blocking (47.1)

K-State's opposing PFF Grades: Pass Rush (75.2), Coverage (63.5)

Average YPG & Rank: Navy - 95.0 (128th), K-State - 211.7 (45th)

Notes: Navy hardly throws the football - at all - but the Midshipmen have been efficient putting the ball in the air. Navy ranks No. 8 in the nation is passing efficiency. Malcolm Perry is only completing 54 percent of his throws, but he does average a wild 23.3 yards per completion on his 49 completed passes. For some perspective, Skylar Thompson completed 171 passes this season for an average of 13 yards a completion.

K-State ranks 44th in the country in pass efficiency defense and has given up just 11 touchdown passes this season. Navy has thrown for just nine, meaning if the Midshipmen throw for any more than one score in the Liberty Bowl they will exceed their season average while exceeding K-State's.

K-State Rush Offense vs. Navy Rush Defense

Navy PFF Grades: Rush Defense (74.8), Tackling (69.3)

K-State's opposing PFF Grades: Rushing offense (76.1), Run Blocking (70.6)

Average YPG & Rank: Navy - 110.8 (17th), K-State - 189.0 (38th)

Notes: Navy allows just 3.27 yards a rush and did hold its own on the ground (105 yards allowed on 21 carries) in a 35-23 loss on the road against a very good Memphis team in a game played inside the Liberty Bowl. Navy rushed for 291 yards on 66 attempts in that game.

Notre Dame hammered Navy, 52-20, but the Irish did average just 3.5 yards a rush attempt on 31 carries for 105 yards. Navy rushed 64 times for 281 yards, or 4.4 yards per carry. Neither of those teams lean on the run the way K-State does, but Navy has had success on the ground all season long - even against good teams in losses.

K-State pass offense vs. Navy pass defense

Navy PFF Grades: Pass Rush (66.1), Coverage (63.5)

K-State's opposing PFF Grades: Passing (80.8), Receiving (72.4), Pass Block (81.6)

Average YPG & Rank: Navy - 215.3 (51st), K-State - 185.7 (106th)

Notes: This, or special teams, appears to be Navy's biggest weakness. Even the passing offense, while very low on volume, can make game changing plays. The Midshipmen rank a little lower in Pass Efficiency Defense (68th) than they do in general passing yardage allowed.

Navy isn't awful against the pass, but they're very average, don't force a ton of turnovers in the passing game and do allow just more than 14 yards a completion, a yard more than Thompson averages every time he completes a pass.

K-State Special Teams vs. Navy Special Teams

Navy PFF Grades: Special Teams (70.8)

K-State's opposing PFF Grades: Special Teams (83.8)

Key Statistics: Navy is 10-14 on field goals, averages 43.0 yards per punt, 16.9 yards per kick return, 6.2 yards per punt return and has 0 return scores.

K-State is 18-20 on field goals, averages 45.0 yards per punt, 29.8 yards per kick return, 6.5 yards per punt return and has four return scores.

Notes: Along with having zero return touchdowns itself, Navy has allowed a pair of kickoff returns to go for scores. While the Wildcats average roughly 10 more yards on kick returns than they give up in covering kicks, Navy averages approximately five yards less a return than what the Midshipmen coverage units allow. Long story short, K-State is better at place kicking, punting, returning and covering - all by arguably significant margins - than Navy.

Kansas State offensive coordinator Courtney Messingham

Kansas State defensive coordinator Scottie Hazelton

Bowl games are very difficult to project. I mean, if you look at my record of picking K-State games this year (as opposed to the national games I know far less about but had a good year for) you'd think every game is difficult to project. That said, I think this is especially difficult.

Not only is it a bowl game in what will likely be calm environment between two programs who've never faced each other, you throw in the uniqueness of the Navy attack - and the fact Chris Kllieman is more used to playoff games than bowl games - and who knows what happens?

I think the team that wants to be there most typically has success in bowl season. I'm not sure either team has a massive edge here. Bowl games often times also end in blowouts, as one team realizes its season is about to end, things aren't going their way and things get out of hand.

That may not fly here, though, as both teams have strong leadership, didn't expect to be playing for national championships and have had successful seasons. Plus, the style of play should shorten the game and keep the scoring down.

I just think K-State is a slightly better team; it's really as simple as that. This could go either way, but I prefer the versatility of the Wildcats and the different ways they can win this game, making a ninth win for Klieman and the Cats a reality.

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