It's time for our official Preview & Prediction for Kansas State's Monday night match-up with No. 1 Baylor.
KANSAS STATE (9-12, 2-6 Big 12) vs. 1/1 BAYLOR (19-1, 8-0 Big 12)
Monday, February 3, 2020 >> 8:01 p.m., CT >> Bramlage Coliseum (12,528) >> Manhattan, Kan.
TELEVISION
ESPN2 / WatchESPN
RADIO
K-State Sports Network
Flagships: // KMAN 1350 & WIBW 580
Online: TuneIn.com [free] / www.kstatesports.com/watch [free]
Satellite Radio: XM 382 / Internet 972
TICKETS
www.kstatesports.com/tickets, (800) 221.CATS [2287], Gameday: $20 (bench & GA)/$40 (chairback), Wildcat 4-Pack: $70 ($17.50 each)
PROJECTED STARTING LINEUP
Kansas State (9-12)
G: #4 David Sloan
G: #3 DaJuan Gordon
G/F: #20 Xavier Sneed
F: #23 Montavious Murphy
F: #14 Makol Mawien
Baylor (19-1)
G: #45 Davion Mitchell
G: #12 Jared Butler
G: #31 MaCio Teague
F: #11 Mark Vital
F: #33 Freddie Gillespie
OPENING TIP
Kansas State (9-12, 2-6 Big 12) welcomes the No. 1 team to Bramlage Coliseum for the ninth time on Monday night, as the Wildcats play host to top-ranked Baylor (19-1, 8-0 Big 12), winners of 19 consecutive games. This will mark the first meeting between the schools this season. It will represent the 21st meeting with the No. 1 team in school history and the first since a 77-68 loss at home to top-ranked Baylor on Jan. 14, 2017. The game will tip at 8:05 p.m., CT on ESPN2 with Rich Hollenberg (play-by-play) and Fran Fraschilla (analyst) on the call.
-Provided by K-State Athletics Communications
JUST THE STATS: Numbers & Analysis from @ksu_FAN
Scott Drew is in his 17th year coaching Baylor and has had four Top 20 kenpom teams in that span, but this might be his best team yet. The Bears currently feature a Top four defense, a top 25 offense and have won 18 straight games, including wins over Villanova, Arizona, Butler, Texas Tech, Florida, and at Kansas.
Like most Drew teams, this team is very good on the offensive glass (fourth nationally), is really good defending the paint (No. 7 2PT% defense), and blocks a lot of shots (No. 25 in block percentage). The improvements this year have come in taking care of the ball (No. 73 in TO rate, up from No. 258 last year) and in forcing turnovers (No. 41 in TO rate, up from No. 162 last year). This team has been pretty good at shooting threes (35%, No. 93), but doesn't take a bunch of threes (36.7% 3-point rate, No. 197). Finally, Baylor is the slowest paced team in the Big 12, as playing slow has become another Drew staple the last seven seasons.
Once again, Drew went out and got a couple transfers that are key parts for this year's team. MaCio Teague came to Baylor from UNC Ashville and is one of the most efficient players in the Big 12 with an impressive 1.23 offensive rating while scoring 13.1 points per game. He's solid from three at 32% while shooting nearly six per game. Jared Butler has been around for several years and is the second leading scorer for the Bears at 12.3 per game. His efficiency and shooting isn't nearly on the same level as Teague, though. The other transfer is Davion Mitchell from Auburn. He's scoring 9.4 per game and hitting 39% from deep.
Baylor isn't quite as long as in the past, but former D3 transfer Freddie Gillispie is one of the most efficient players in the Big 12 and one of the best rebounders. Mark Vital is undersized at the four and not much of a scorer, but also really good on the boards. Bandoo is a nice scorer and a 41% 3-point shooter off the bench. Mayer is a long guard at 6-9 and another 3-point shooting threat while Clark gives depth in the post.
FAN'S THREE KEYS
1. Build off the good interior play at WVU: K-State won points in the paint and shot a decent 47% on twos against a tough front court in Morgantown. If the Cats can approach 50% on twos against Baylor they will be able to play with the Bears. They also have been better on the boards the last four or five games, and they will need to stay close on offensive rebounding (oboarding) rates vs Baylor.
2. Turn over the Bears: K-State's defensive strength is turning people over, which will be a tough task against a Baylor team that is second in the league at taking care of the ball. Meanwhile, Baylor's defense is better, as well, and taking care of the ball has been a weakness for K-State. This is a stat K-State needs to win, though; it's tough enough when you aren't great at shooting - that only gets compounded when you don't even get a shot off.
3. Make some perimeter shots: Baylor isn't a great 3-point shooting team, and we know that K-State has struggled here as well. The key here is finding the balance of making them while not taking too many shots from behind the arc. Shooting 35% on around 20 attempts seems to be a pretty good spot for this offense.
HALL'S CALL: Baylor 62, K-State 53
I probably shouldn't overthink this one.
Baylor is the best team in college basketball and has won 18 straight games, including victories away from home in that stretch against Texas Tech, Kansas, Oklahoma State, Florida and Iowa State. I think K-State is playing better, but I do not anticipate the Wildcats pulling off something tonight those other programs could not.
I imagine the Wildcats will play a game that feels somewhat similar - competitively speaking - to Saturday's loss at West Virginia. Baylor is simply the better team, and the Bears don't appear to be overlooking anybody at this point.
***Subscribe to K-StateOnline by clicking here***
Talk K-State football and basketball in the largest, most active K-State message board community anywhere, The Foundation.