Previewing Game Four: Oklahoma

2021 record: 11-2 (7-2)
Big 12 Standings: Third
Best wins: Oregon (10-4, FEI/SP+ No. 37), Kansas State (8-5, FEI/SP+ No. 19), Iowa State (7-6, FEI/SP+ No. 16), Texas (5-7, FEI/SP+ No. 40), Nebraska (3-9, FEI/SP+ No. 30)
Notable losses: They lost to Big 12 champion Baylor 27-14 and 37-33 to rival Oklahoma State. That broke a six-season streak of Big 12 titles.
Head Coach: Brent Venables. He enters his first season as a head coach after long-time stints as defensive coordinator at both Clemson and Oklahoma that dates back to 1999. He also played and coached at K-State.

The Sooners finished 2021 ranked No. 10 in both the AP and Coaches polls. They were No. 12 in the combined FEI/SP+ rankings, which included being No. 4 on offense, No. 56 on defense and No. 41 on special teams.

Like most teams coached by Lincoln Riley, Oklahoma was led by one of college football’s top offenses, and they finished in the top 45 in every major category I charted and in the top 20 of most.

The Sooners finished No. 8 in both scoring offense (39.1 points per game) and points per drive (3.17). They were No. 18 in total offense (451.0 yards per game) and No. 19 in offensive success rate (47.8 percent).

The red zone offense was No. 1 in the country (96.8 percent) and they were No. 5 in scoring on drives that reached inside the 40-yard line (4.86 points per drive).

Oklahoma threw the ball nearly 52 percent of the time with a passing efficiency that finished No. 9 and a passing success rate that was No. 15 (47.6 percent). The rush offense was No. 38 (187.5 yards per game) with a rushing success rate ranking No. 28 (48.2 percent).

They were No. 44 nationally in third down conversions (42.6 percent).

The defense was average in most areas, though the run defense was solid. They ranked No. 60 in scoring defense (25.8 points per game) and No. 83 in points per drive allowed (2.44). Total defense finished No. 76 (390.8 yards per game) with a success rate allowed of No. 55 (41.5 percent).

The pass defense was a weakness and ranked No. 109 in passing yards allowed (261.8), No. 100 in passing efficiency defense and No. 76 in passing success rate allowed (42.5 percent).

They were No. 30 in rushing yards allowed (129.0 yards per game) and No. 40 in rushing success rate allowed (41.1 percent).

The red zone defense ranked No. 80 (85.1 percent) and they were No. 74 in points per drive inside their 40-yard line (3.83). The Sooners were No. 49 in defensive havoc rate (18.0 percent) and finished No. 7 in turnover margin.

Special teams were decent, finishing No. 41 in the combined FEI/SP+, highlighted by punt coverage (No. 9), field goal efficiency (No. 27) and the kickoff return unit (No. 54). Their weaknesses were on kickoff coverage (No. 98) and punt returns (No. 127).

Oklahoma was picked to finish second in the Big 12 by the media and in most other preseason polls. They are slated by most to be a top-10 team and ranked No. 5 in the preseason SP+.

They are No. 71 in returning production, which includes being No. 117 on offense and No. 15 on defense.

Gone are two talented quarterbacks in Caleb Williams and Spencer Rattler, the top two rushers in Kennedy Brooks and Williams, and four of their top five receivers.

Former Ole Miss offensive coordinator Jeff Lebby joins Venables after producing one of the nation’s best (and fastest) offenses last season.

The defense will be replacing three of the top four tacklers, including stars Patrick Fields, Brian Asamoah and Nik Bonitto, but they have some nice returning pieces and some key additions through the transfer portal.

It will be the 11th stop as defensive coordinator for Ted Roof, though Venables will have a lot of influence on that side of the ball. Maybe the biggest surprise is that only one Sooner earned preseason All-Big 12 honors and that was punter Michael Turk.

OFFENSE

1. WR Marvin Mims (5-11/184): Mims led the Sooners with 705 yards and averaged an explosive 21.8 yards per catch last season Mims finished with 32 catches and five touchdowns.

2. RB Eric Gray (5-10/211): Gray was third in rushing with 412 yards and averaged over five yards per carry with two touchdowns. He also caught 23 balls for 229 yards and two scores.

3. WR Theo Wease (6-3/200): Wease missed the 2021 season with an injury, but he was one of Oklahoma's leading receivers in 2020 with 37 catches for 530 yards and four scores.

4. TE Brayden Willis (6-4/239): He caught 15 balls for 177 yards and two touchdowns.

5. RB Marcus Major (6-0/219): As another big back, Major rushed for 5.5 yards per carry on 15 touches.

6. WR Drake Stoops (5-10/191): Stoops caught 16 passes for 191 yards and three touchdowns.

7. LT Anton Harrison (6-6/309): The big tackle leads a rebuilding offensive line.

DEFENSE

1. OLB DeShaun White (6-0/218): White was the third leading tackler with 60 and also tallied 4.5 tackles for loss.

2. S Key Lawrence (6-1/204): He collected 47 tackles, 3.5 for loss and also had a team-leading four passes broken up.

3. S Justin Broiles (5-11/190): Broiles had 53 tackles, four for loss and picked off two passes.

4. CB Woodi Washington (6-2/185): Washington recorded 27 tackles and had a pair of interceptions.

SPECIAL TEAMS

1. P Michael Turk: Preseason All-Big 12. One of the best punters in the nation, Turk averages 45.9 yards per punt for his career (51.2 last year). He has downed 76 inside the 20 and booted 64 punts of 50 yards or more in his career.

2. PR Marvin Mims: He's an explosive receiver and finished with 69 punt return yards last season.

OFFENSE

1. QB Dillon Gabriel (5-11/204): The UCF transfer missed most of last season with an injury, but he threw for over 3,500 yards and completed 59 percent of his passes in 2019 and 2020. Gabriel combined for 61 touchdowns and only 11 interceptions in those seasons and totaled six more touchdowns on the ground.

2. RB Jovantae Barnes (6-0/201): A four-star recruit, Barnes was ranked as one of the top 10 backs in last year’s class by three of the four major recruiting services.

3. TE Daniel Parker (6-2/249): The Missouri transfer caught 41 balls for 337 yards and four touchdowns for the Tigers.

DEFENSE

1. DB Trey Morrison (5-9/189): Morrison is a North Carolina transfer. He played four seasons with the Tar Heels and had 163 tackles, 11 for loss, three sacks, broke up 15 passes and had one defensive touchdown.

2. DL Jeffery Johnson (6-2/313): He spent four seasons with Tulane and had 135 tackles, 15 for loss, 10 sacks and a defensive touchdown.

3. OLB TD Roof (5-10/221): Roof is the son of the Oklahoma defensive coordinator and will be at his fourth school after stops at Georgia Tech, Indiana and Appalachian State. In four total seasons, he had 142 tackles, 16 for loss, two sacks and two interceptions.

4. DE Jonah Lualu (6-5/271): he is a transfer from Hawaii that has three seasons under his belt where he has totaled 70 tackles, 19 for loss and logged eight sacks.

FAN: Kansas State wins if…

The Wildcats live up to expectations on both sides of the ball. K-State has had some big wins in Norman through the years and it will be interesting to watch the transition for Venables as head coach.

Oklahoma still has plenty of talent, but the transition on offense and some key losses on defense could lead to some growing pains in year one. It’s notable that no Sooner earned All-Big 12 preseason honors on offense or defense.

Stability and continuity could pay off for Chris Klieman’s third win in four tries versus Oklahoma.

Prediction: Kansas State 37, Oklahoma 31

DY: Kansas State wins if...

The Wildcats win the turnover battle. Like Fan, I anticipate some growing pains from Venables' bunch at Oklahoma, and it's an advantage for Klieman and K-State to see them early in the season rather than later on in the year.

Jeff Lebby will be integrating his offense and it operates at even more of a breakneck pace than what we saw under Lincoln Riley the last few years in Norman. It's fair to question whether or not it'll be hitting on all cylinders just yet.

Most of the Sooners' returning production lies on the defensive side of the ball, and that is where Venables will have the most influence. I anticipate them being better on that side of the field in the first couple months.

Because Kansas State has their best roster under Klieman, has fared pretty well against Oklahoma under his direction, and a lot of turnover in Norman, the recipe is there for a Wildcat victory.

Prediction: Kansas State 30, Oklahoma 27