Kansas State won't begin spring practice for another few weeks, but it's not too early to start talking about the upcoming football season.
Following another round of conference realignment that saw the proverbial death of the Pac 12, the Big 12 is bigger and more wide open than ever.
After winning nine games a season ago, Kansas State is well-positioned to take advantage of the conference's upheaval, especially with the expanded playoffs coming next season.
However, things will still need to go Kansas State's way, and winning multiple games in this conference appears to be a difficult task and a war of attrition.
Here is a best-case and worst-case scenario for Kansas State in 2024.
FLOOR: BOWL GAME, AROUND 8 TOTAL WINS
Kansas State will have a first-time starting quarterback next season, which could present some problems.
Of course, that first-year starter is Avery Johnson, an electrifying dual-threat who accounted for three touchdowns against NC State in the Pop-Tarts Bowl.
There is a slight chance that Johnson busts, especially with a new offensive coordinator (Connor Riley) and quarterbacks coach (Matt Wells). While both of these coaches are experienced, there is some roster turnover to figure out, which could take time.
Riley is tasked with replacing a large chunk of an offensive line that was among the nation's best, including driving force Cooper Beebe, who declared for the NFL Draft at the end of the season. The offense also loses their two leading receivers, Phillip Brooks and Ben Sinnott.
Defensively, the Wildcats lose two defensive backs (Kobe Savage and Will Lee III) and their most dynamic pass rusher from a year ago, Khalid Duke. Kansas State can replace Lee with their room, and Duke can be replaced from within, but that's three contributors from the season opener, and it's not easy to replace that in an off-season.
There's a chance the roster turnover takes an adjustment period, which could cause a slip-up in early season play.
Tulane on the road and Arizona at home is a daunting back-to-back for Kansas State, and that's in the first three weeks of the season. There's a chance they drop one (or both) of those games as the team takes time to adjust.
However, this is a well-coached Kansas State team, making this floor seem unlikely. Even if the Big 12 ravages itself in conference play, Kansas State is well-positioned to be near the top of the conference, which makes anything less than 7 or 8 wins unlikely.
CEILING: PLAY-OFF APPEARANCE
Let's be clear: This is a great Kansas State team.
Head coach Chris Klieman has built a sustainable contender that projects near the top of the Big 12 for the foreseeable future. There's always a chance that the transfer portal or injuries derail that, but it seems unlikely.
Avery Johnson and DJ Giddens will likely create a running game near the top of the Big 12, and the wide receiver has enough talent to replace Brooks and Sinnott.
While the offensive line needs to replace multiple starters, there is both talent and strong coaching. Riley is one of the best offensive line coaches in football, and his ability to extract talent from players is second to none.
There are question marks defensively, but the secondary played well at the end of last season, and they only have to replace one starter (Savage) from the final regular season game. The money is on Kansas State finding a safety to round out the room, whether it be an in-house replacement or someone like Ball State transfer Jordan Riley.
Kansas State's win total seems to hover around 9.5 wins, which is a strong preseason number. That would put them in prime contention to compete for the Big 12.
Their schedule will be challenging, but avoiding Utah, who some expect to win the conference, is a major win for the Wildcats. Of course, that means they don't avoid teams like Colorado and Arizona, but Utah is one of the main contenders for the Big 12's playoff spot.
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