100 Questions: Big 12 betting
***Yesterday's Question HERE***
In an attempt to pass the time this off-season we're fortunate to have secured the help of scottwildcat from Boscoe's Boys. Scott is going to provide 100 questions about the past, present, future (and who-knows-what) involving Kansas State sports, and I'll do my very best to answer them.
Let's dive in to the 100 Questions.
Question No. 73: You have $10,000, and you have to use each penny to bet Big XII win total over/under bets. You can bet any amount across any set of totals but must bet on at least three. How are you using your money?
Here are the official lines I found and will be using for this story:
Oklahoma – 10.5
Texas – 9.5
Iowa State – 8
TCU – 7.5
Oklahoma State – 6.5
Baylor – 6.5
Texas Tech – 6.5
Kansas State – 5.5
West Virginia – 5
Kansas – 3.5
Kansas: UNDER 3.5 ($5,000)
Kansas SHOULD get two non-conference wins against Indiana State and Coastal Carolina. The Jayhawks third out of league game is a trip to Boston College. I'm not ready to consider the idea of Kansas winning a Power Five road game, which leaves home games against West Virginia, Oklahoma, Texas Tech, Kansas State and Baylor. KU isn't beating Oklahoma, anywhere, so you're really down to just trying to decide if you think the Jayhawks will go 2-2 or 1-3 against WVU, Tech, K-State and the Bears. I could absolutely see one win there to get this team to three, but I don't project the two wins needed to get to four. At three this becomes a line I probably don't want to touch, but 3.5 has me somewhat confident in the under.
Oklahoma State: OVER 6.5 ($4,500)
In one of our group chats this morning Derek Young pondered why so many of us seem to be high on Oklahoma State despite the Cowboys' appearance a season ago. He then went on to note, however, maybe it's just the belief somebody has to win games in the Big 12 Conference. That's kind of how I feel. OSU had won 10 games three years in a row before slipping to seven wins last season and had won at least 10 six of the last eight. In 10 of the last 14 seasons Mike Gundy's team has won at least seven regular-season games (above this number, obviously), and the four times they didn't win seven they won six, getting the seventh win in a bowl game. As much as anything, the schedule is pretty kind. The P5 non-con game is with a really bad Oregon State program, and the Pokes have five home games to four road trips in conference play. I have a hard time running through OSU's schedule and not finding seven wins.
Texas: UNDER 9.5 ($500)
I really struggled to find a third number I like, ultimately settling on Texas. I think a non-conference home game against LSU and a neutral site game against Oklahoma will both be massive challenges, and I'm tempted to pick against the Horns in both. If UT does drop both of those games Texas would have to go a perfect 10-0 the rest of the way to go over this number. Those 10 games include trips to TCU, Baylor, Iowa State and West Virginia. I wouldn't say I'm confident Texas only wins nine games, but if forced to bet that's the route I'd take on Tom Herman's team.