8/1/2019 football Edit

Prediction & Preview: TCU

Alex Delton is one of six quarterbacks competing for the job at TCU. (Texas Christian University)

Matt Hall • EMAWOnline

Managing Editor

@Matthew_D_Hall

{{ link.display_text }} |

LAST YEAR

I know I said Oklahoma State was up and down, but TCU rode quite the roller coaster, too, in 2018.

Early on the Horned Frogs looked like a Big 12 contender. TCU blew out Southern and SMU to open up the year, then looked like the better team against Ohio State for three-plus quarters before falling 40-28.

Throughout the middle of the season, however, TCU looked as bad as anybody in the Big 12.

League play opened up with a 31-16 loss at Texas before a bounce-back 17-14 win over Iowa State. A 17-14 loss to Texas Tech (a 17-14 Texas Tech game?!?) followed, then a 52-27 blowout loss to Oklahoma and, gulp, a 27-26 loss to Kansas.

TCU bounced back to knock off a Skylar Thompson-less K-State team 14-13 in Fort Worth before getting drilled, 47-10, against West Virginia.

So, six games into league play TCU had just two wins: a three-point home win against Iowa State and a one-point home win over K-State.

TCU finished the regular season on a high note, though, winning its last two against Baylor and Oklahoma State in one-score games before beating Cal 10-7 - in overtime - in arguably the ugliest bowl game of all time.

Gary Patterson is probably happy to be moving on to 2019.

WHO ARE THEY?

It's kind of difficult to know right now.

Patterson sounded genuinely confident in his bunch at Big 12 Football Media Days, confident enough to make me re-think my stance of TCU being in the bottom half of the league in 2019. The Horned Frogs' head coach doesn't typically spout false confidence, and the excitement he expressed for his team's chances this year has me thinking a bounce back is possible.

TCU lost its two best defensive linemen, but I don't doubt Patterson will put speed on the field on that side of the ball and present one of the Big 12's best defenses.

For me, the questions come on offense. Injuries and poor quarterback play left TCU with an offense that posted 17 or less points in seven of its last 10 games in 2018. And, to make matters worse, TCU lost two of the three games when it did score more than 17 to Kansas and Oklahoma.

If an answer can be found at quarterback, however, and the offense can stay healthy I wouldn't be stunned if this is a much, much better team in 2019.

WHO TO WATCH?

Jalen Reagor is one of the best big-play weapons in the Big 12 Conference. (Getty Images)

I'd love to say Alex Delton here for storyline purposes, but I don't expect Delton to be the starter by this point of the season.

So, let's go with the most dangerous player on the TCU roster, wide receiver Jalen Reagor.

The fact Reagor was somehow able to accumulate more than 1,000 receiving yards last year with TCU's quarterback situation speaks to his skill, and I'm not sure there's a more explosive player in the entire league.

TCU had virtually zero competent QB play in the K-State game, but Reagor still found a way to make three catches for 92 yards, including a 67-yard catch and run touchdown that was essentially the difference in the contest.

K-STATE WINS BECAUSE...

I expect TCU's offense to be better this year (it essentially has to be), but I'm still not convinced it will be a good unit. I think it's very, very possible the Wildcats and Horned Frogs play another low-scoring game somewhat similar to last year's contest.

Unless Delton plays, the Wildcats will also have a significantly more experienced quarterback in Thompson. In a low-scoring game I'd typically be quick to take the home team with the better signal caller, and I think that's what K-State will be.

K-STATE LOSES BECAUSE...

I think the Horned Frogs have a more talented overall roster, and I have loads of respect for Patterson. I have to think one of their options at quarterback will work out and the offense will be a respectable group. If TCU is healthy, motivated and getting good quarterback play, the Horned Frogs will be the favorite in this game.

PRESEASON PREDICTION: TCU 20, K-State 17

I haven't had a tougher time picking a winner in a game yet in this series. I've gone back and forth, but I'm going to settle on TCU, ultimately. For me it comes down to TCU having a bye week before this contest to get healthy, which was the Horned Frogs' biggest issue a year ago, with the Wildcats fresh off... a bye week themselves! This is hard. I like that Reagor will give TCU the ability to strike fast in a game where points will be hard to come by, leaving me leaning - ever so slightly - to TCU.