8/8/2019 football Edit

Preview & Prediction: Oklahoma

Oklahoma wide receiver CeeDee Lamb is one of the Big 12's most explosive offensive weapons. (Getty Images)

Matt Hall • EMAWOnline

Managing Editor

LAST YEAR

Lincoln Riley has not won a National Championship in either of his first two seasons leading the Oklahoma program, but he's probably had the best start possible outside of earning that ultimate honor.

Last year was much like 2017 for Riley in Norman. The Sooners won the Big 12, won 12 games, made the College Football Playoff and had their starting quarterback win both the Heisman Trophy and go No. 1 overall in the NFL Draft.

Sounds almost unrealistic, doesn't it?

That's been reality the last two years for OU.

Maybe the biggest difference between the two seasons was how the Sooners handled K-State. Two years ago in Manhattan OU had to score in the final minutes to claim a 42-35 win. Last year, however, Oklahoma won 51-14 at home in a game that somehow wasn't nearly as close as the blowout score indicates. OU out-gained K-State 702-245 in total offense despite resting its starters for the entire fourth quarter.

Both of Riley's seasons have ended in the CFP semi-final; OU fans would certainly like to take another step this year.

WHO ARE THEY?

They're loaded, again, on offense.

You'd be hard pressed to find many skill position trios in the nation as dangerous as quarterback Jalen Hurts, running back Trey Sermon and wide receiver CeeDee Lamb. Four starters do need to be replaced from a dominant offensive line, however, and some unproven talent will need to gel quickly up front.

Defense has long been the question at Oklahoma, and that's why Mike Stoops is no longer employed in Norman.

Riley was able to hire Alex Grinch from Ohio State, thought by many to be one of the top defensive coordinators in college football. If Grinch can take linebacker Kenneth Murray and build an improved defense at OU the offense may not need Hurts to be as good as Baker Mayfield or Kyler Murray - both of which played like the top player in the nation in their season as OU's starting quarterback.

WHO TO WATCH?

Hurts is going to get a lot of the pub - and for good reason - but I think Lamb is the best player in the Big 12.

The 6-foot-1, 191-pound junior hauled in 65 receptions for 1,158 yards (17.8 yards per catch) and 11 scores last season, following up a freshman campaign that saw him make 46 catches for 807 yards (17.5 yards per catch) and seven touchdowns.

All Lamb did to K-State's secondary a year ago was grab four passes for 160 yards and two touchdowns.

Lamb wasn't the top option in the Sooner passing game either of the last two years, and I wouldn't be shocked if he compiled a 1,500-yard season if he stays healthy as Hurts' No. 1 target. There's enough other talent on offense, too, to prevent defenses from rolling their coverage Lamb's direction.

K-STATE WINS BECAUSE...

Did you see what Army did to Oklahoma early last year in Norman?

No, K-State won't be as gimmicky as a triple-option offense or be able to catch OU napping in a league game, but that game served as a bit of a blue print for how you can upset the Sooners.

Attack a (hopefully still, for K-State) a soft run defense, dominate time of possession and keep Lamb from making big plays. Lamb had four catches against Army - just like he did against K-State - but for only 22 total yards.

The Wildcats will deserve to be a clear underdog heading into this game, but it's not impossible to find a scenario where the Wildcats hang around (like in 2017) at home and make things interesting.

K-STATE LOSES BECAUSE...

Oklahoma has been the class of the Big 12 for nearly 20 years now, and the Sooners may even be improving under Riley. The Wildcats have stunned the Sooners as much as anybody over that time-frame and won't lay down in this one, but the Wildcats will face as big of a talent/depth deficit in this game as any they will play in 2019.

PRESEASON PREDICTION: Oklahoma 41, K-State 20

For whatever reason, I'd be surprised if this isn't close for a half. The Wildcats are going to look at games against Mississippi State and Oklahoma as major opportunities to try and prove the program is in a different place than it was a season ago. I think that motivation, style of play and home crowd will keep this competitive for a while, but two big plays midway through the third quarter could bust things open.