Big 12 Breakdown: Looking at the title contenders
For the remainder of the Big 12 season we'll take a look at Kansas State's chances to win the Big 12 Conference Championship against the rest of the league contenders in Big 12 Breakdown.
1. Kansas State
Current Record: 5-2
Remaining Schedule: AT Oklahoma State, VS Kansas, AT Baylor, AT Texas, VS Iowa State, AT West Virginia, VS Oklahoma State, AT Kansas, VS Baylor, AT TCU, VS Oklahoma
Why they'll win the league: K-State is the most experienced team in the league, currently sits tied for first place with just Baylor and has a real chance to take some control of the league if the Wildcats are able to win at Oklahoma State on Saturday and against Kansas in Manhattan the following Tuesday. K-State does have more road games (six) left than home games (five), but two of those are at league bottom feeders OSU and WVU. Take care of business in those two games and you've got a schedule that has more home dates left against contenders than road battles. The loss at A&M hurt in general, but it has no impact on a Big 12 season that has seen the Wildcats win five straight games against league foes. K-State legitimately believes it can win the league.
Why they won't: The schedule isn't bad, but it's not as big of a positive as once thought. K-State still has to play Baylor - suddenly a league challenger - two more times. The same can be said for rival Kansas. A trip to Austin looks more daunting that originally expected, and a late road game at TCU will also provide a test. The Wildcats may have been the best team in the Big 12 over the course of the conference season so far, but the margin for error is also small due to offensive struggles.
Final prediction: 12-6, tied for first place, No. 2 seed in Big 12 Tournament
1. Baylor
Current Record: 5-2
Remaining Schedule: VS TCU, AT Texas, VS Kansas State, VS Oklahoma, AT Texas Tech, AT Iowa State, VS West Virginia, VS Texas, AT Kansas State, VS Oklahoma State, AT Kansas
Why they'll win the league: Unlike fellow first-place team Kansas State, Baylor has more home games left (six) than road trips (five). The Bears have won four straight Big 12 games and kept their momentum going in the Big 12/SEC challenge by knocking off Alabama as part of an overall five-game winning streak. Transfer Makai Mason is averaging better than 15 points a game, and the Bears are off a 30-point destruction of Oklahoma in Norman. Baylor has developed a new identity since the loss of star Tristan Clark, and Scott Drew's team has turned into a contender.
Why they won't: Maybe it's not a fair question, but can Baylor REALLY be this good? On paper, this just doesn't look like a roster that should compete for a league crown. The home/road split is nice, but all five road games (Texas, Texas Tech, Iowa State, K-State, Kansas) are against fellow contenders and will see Baylor as the underdog. The Bears have to take advantage of an upcoming four game stretch that features three home games to be a part of this race.
Final prediction: 11-7, tied for fourth place, No. 5 seed in Big 12 Tournament
3. Texas Tech
Current Record: 5-3
Remaining Schedule: AT Kansas, VS West Virginia, AT Oklahoma, AT Oklahoma State, VS Baylor, VS Kansas, VS Oklahoma State, AT TCU, VS Texas, AT Iowa State
Why they'll win the league: Tech probably snaps Kansas' streak last season if the Red Raiders are able to stay healthy, and you do get the sense this is a program on a bit of a mission to claim a Big 12 title. The Red Raiders have an even five/five split of home and road games remaining, but one thing you have to like schedule wise is 30 percent of TTU's remaining games come against league cellar-dwellers West Virginia and Oklahoma State. If Jarrett Culver can keep Tech alive over the next four games (three on the road) the Red Raiders will get to close out league play with four of their last six games at home.
Why they won't: On the flip side, TTU only has three home games left against "contenders" Baylor, Kansas and Texas while still having road games left against Kansas, Oklahoma, TCU and Iowa State. This Tech team isn't as talented as the one that challenged for the league crown a season ago, and it will be a challenge for Chris Beard to keep the Red Raiders believing in their league hopes if they can't go at least 2-2 in this upcoming four-game stretch.
Final prediction: 12-6, tied for first place, No. 3 seed in Big 12 Tournament
3. Kansas
Current Record: 5-3
Remaining Schedule: VS Texas Tech, AT Kansas State, VS Oklahoma State, AT TCU, VS West Virginia, AT Texas Tech, VS Kansas State, AT Oklahoma, AT Oklahoma State, VS Baylor
Why they'll win the league: Well, because the Jayhawks win it every year? KU doesn't have near the experience of K-State, for example, but it's hard not to argue that Bill Self still has the most talented team in the league. The 10 games left have a split of five home and five road games, and KU doesn't have any long road stretches, the worst coming late in the year with back-to-back trips to Oklahoma and Oklahoma State, two of the least daunting venues in the league right now. If there's one team in this race who will never doubt its ability to win the league, it's Kansas.
Why they won't: KU appears to be a pretty bad road team. The Jayhawks have lost five straight true road games, with three of those coming in league play. The one road win (at Baylor) may prove to be huge, but even it came as the Bears tried to figure out how to play without Tristan Clark for the first time in a five-point KU win. The crazy thing is Kansas has proven capable of losing anywhere, with the loss at West Virginia the Mountaineers only Big 12 win in seven tries. If Kansas can't have success against the weaker Big 12 teams away from Lawrence, the Big 12 title streak will come to an end.
Final prediction: 12-6, tied for first place, No. 1 seed in Big 12 Tournament
5. Iowa State
Current Record: 4-3
Remaining Schedule: VS West Virginia, VS Texas, AT Oklahoma, VS TCU, AT Kansas State, VS Baylor, AT TCU, VS Oklahoma, AT Texas, AT West Virginia, VS Texas Tech
Why they'll win the league: This could be a wise dark-horse pick to win the league. You have to like having six home games left against five road trips, and the upcoming four-game stretch of home games against West Virginia, Texas and TCU with just one roadie (Oklahoma) gives ISU a real shot to solidify a spot near the top of the league for the closing stretch. Having two games left with West Virginia is also nice. Marial Shayok is easily one of the best players in the league, and what if Lindell Wigginton finds his form to help out Shayok and a solid ISU starting five?
Why they won't: ISU may end up really, really regretting a one-point home loss to K-State in Ames. Being a game back of the rest of the contenders matters, even with so much basketball left to be played. Probably everybody else listed so far can afford to drop another game or two it should win and still have a real shot, but I'm not sure ISU has the same margin for error left the rest of the way.
Final prediction: 11-7, tied for fourth place, No. 4 seed in Big 12 Tournament
6. Texas
Current Record: 4-4
Remaining Schedule: AT Iowa State, VS Baylor, AT West Virginia, VS Kansas State, VS Oklahoma State, AT Oklahoma, AT Baylor, VS Iowa State, AT Texas Tech, VS TCU
Why they'll win the league: I was tempted to leave Texas out of this discussion, but the Longhorns already have wins at K-State (without Dean Wade and Kam Stokes, but still a key win) and over Kansas at home. Texas even had a real shot of winning at Lawrence and deserves to be part of this discussion at their mid-way point. The final 10 games are split evenly between home and road, and it's got to be nice being finished playing Kansas this early in league play. Baylor, K-State and Iowa State all still have to head to Austin, leaving UT with plenty of opportunities to keep itself in the race with home victories.
Why they won't: UT is already two games back of the leaders in the loss column and has proven to be very vulnerable away from home, losing four straight road games since beating an injury riddled K-State team in Manhattan. Shaka Smart's team is going to have to win road games to catch up in this race, and it's hard to picture them winning enough of them.
Final prediction: 10-8, tied for sixth place, No. 6 seed in Big 12 Tournament