Something we will aim to do here regularly at K-StateOnline is take a deeper look at the Wildcats, both from a player development and Xs & Os standpoint, in our weekly “Film Don’t Lie” feature. Hopefully this can create some great discussion on our message boards with posters pointing out things they see differently or disagree with and also taking an opportunity to add to the discussion with what they pick up from watching the Wildcats.
For our first installment, we’re going to take a look back at last year’s Texas Bowl win over Texas A&M. Perhaps no game gives us a better indicator of what to watch for in 2017 than the game that closed out the 2016 – an exciting win over the Aggies in the Lone Star State.
First, some general thoughts before I get into some specifics on players.
As a whole, K-State is a more physically gifted and imposing team than most realize. The narrative of the walk-on/lightly recruited players who Bill Snyder and his staff get the most out of has gotten to the point where it’s misleading and a bit of a cliché. Now, it’s absolutely true that K-State doesn’t get a ton of highly rated recruits and has found success in a number of walk-ons and with player development, but ultimately this K-State team didn’t look much different from an athletic standpoint than a Texas A&M team full of four and five-star recruits. If a person had no background on what type of talent the teams were perceived to have or any preconceived notions on the Big 12 and the SEC, they would have watched two teams on an even playing field. The Wildcats, especially on offense, will be as big, physical, talented and athletically gifted in 2017 as almost any team in college football.
Offensively, it’s fascinating to watch how K-State uses formations and personnel groupings. I think as members of the media and fans who watch the Wildcats every snap week after week, year after year you get the feeling that they are predictable, but that’s a clouded perspective. If you step back, it’s easy to understand why national media and opponents who aren’t focusing 100 percent of their attention on K-State on a weekly basis would describe the Wildcats as difficult to prepare for, certainly unique. The Wildcats run a lot of the same plays out of different formations and personnel groupings. For long-time fans, you can see a lot of similarities between things ran now that were ran back in the mid to late-1990s, just out of more modern looking formations. When you hear a quote from Mike Stoops suggesting it’s like defending two or three different offenses at the same time, I don’t think that’s just coach-speak.
One unique thing I noticed in this game and throughout much of the season is that I’m not sure K-State really uses the zone read that much. They run a lot of plays that look like a zone read, but when you go back and watch multiple times it often looks as if the read – handoff or keep – is predetermined. Meaning there’s a lot of times that the look the defensive end shows would have suggested a keep but the ball is handed off, or vice versa. I think in his second full year as a starter, Jesse Ertz may have a lot more leeway to actually be making this read – creating a chance for more big plays off this look.
On defense, the big takeaway from trying to watch this game from a different perspective is that the Wildcats aren’t as conservative as many express Tom Hayes’ group to be. Yes, the cornerbacks do give a large cushion and don’t regularly take many chances, but at the same time you see a lot of blitzing from K-State in situations where a truly conservative team would drop more players in coverage. If you were going to be critical, I think it would be that the blitzes aren’t typically very exotic, as it’s very common to see one or two linebackers blitz the inside gaps on obvious passing downs. Those blitzes are typically shown pre-snap and rarely backed out of.
As for the players, let’s start with some observations on offense, with Ertz first.
As many have said, Ertz looked much, much sharper as a passer in this game than he did at any point in the regular season. The layoff obviously helped the injury to his throwing shoulder, but what’s more encouraging is the fact the shoulder obviously wasn’t even healthy in this game as he required offseason surgery. It’s impossible not to think he’ll be an even better thrower in 2017, hopefully downfield in a manner that can really take advantage of K-State’s strength running the ball and the play-action pass.
As for the topic of Ertz’s “deceptive speed,” one reason for this commonly heard phrase (among others) is that he’s a bit of a glider when he runs. Vince Young never looked terribly fast when he was chewing up yards at Texas, because his running style wasn’t violent – more graceful. No, Ertz is not Vince Young, but the style in which each runs tends to trick announcers into thinking they aren’t moving that quickly. And if anybody in college football has a better stiff arm than Ertz, well, I haven’t seen it.
On a more critical side, I was perhaps a little concerned with what I saw from Ertz going through his progressions. I only recall seeing one time where he truly worked through his options, and it ended in a situation where he held on to the ball for too long before ultimately taking a coverage sack. The rest of the game I’m not sure I saw Ertz ever move to a second option on a pass play. He’d take the snap, make one read and throw it if someone was open. If someone wasn’t, he’d take off running. Now, to his credit, on many of those plays the first read was open and it was the right place to go with the ball. He’s also a gifted runner and was wise to avoid taking sacks the remainder of the game, but I also wonder if in Year 2 as a starter he’ll be more comfortable moving through these reads faster and hitting second options down the field.
Justin Silmon is a tough, elusive runner – but he does lack great speed. Now, he’s faster than Charles Jones and more of an explosive threat than Jones, but he’s not a breakaway threat. If you are going to judge him off of one game (which is obviously super fair), he’s not the lead blocker in the QB run game that Alex Barnes is. I think Barnes’ explosiveness and ability as a blocker will earn him a greater share of snaps than you’d typically see in a committee approach, and I’d expect something like a 70-30 split in Barnes’ favor if both are healthy. This is not to say Silmon isn’t a good back. He certainly is and could be a 1,000-plus yard rusher if he were a true featured back in this offense.
Nothing but good things to say about K-State’s receivers. Byron Pringle was able to run away from an SEC secondary with ease on his long TD reception, Isaiah Zuber proved to be very reliable when called upon and Dominique Heath had more moments than just the long touchdown run on a bit of misdirection. If I had to put money on surprise player to breakout for K-State on offense next year, I’d go with Zuber, who didn’t have a big game by any stretch against the Aggies but he seemed to be somebody Ertz trusts. Plus, he always seemed to find himself in the right place as a freshman. Trust, reliability and the athletic ability he flashed in other games last year could combine to make him a much bigger part of the offense than some would expect him to be. Carlos Strickland is going to have to be relatively special to crack the lineup ahead of Pringle, Heath and Zuber early in his career.
Defensively, I was very, very impressed with Reggie Walker. I kind of left the season with the impression that he was a bit of one-dimensional speed pass rusher, but that was wrong. In this game he was very assignment sound, regularly staying home on the zone read and not getting fooled by plays that looked like a zone read before turning into horizontal throws down the line of scrimmage. He also made a difference as a pass rusher and found his way into the backfield a number of times. He’s going to be an awfully good player at K-State for the next two or three seasons.
On the flip side, losing Jordan Willis is going to hurt every bit as much as I expected it would. Willis was double-teamed a huge chunk of the time, leaving Walker one-on-one almost the whole game, and he still found his way into the backfield regularly. Tanner Wood played more than I remembered this game and did a good job of not getting moved off the line of scrimmage, but he also wasn’t getting into the backfield. I did like his knack for getting his hands up when he’s unable to get to the quarterback, as his size and length will allow him to bat some balls down this year. But he, or any replacement, is not going to be Willis. Walker can probably come close to replacing Willis’ production. The problem is finding somebody to replace Walker’s efforts as he slides into the that top DE role.
At linebacker, I really feel like K-State is going to miss Mike Moore more than Elijah Lee. Both were good players, and Lee is probably the better athlete, but Moore was more valuable to the defense in this game and throughout the season. He was almost always where he needed to be and seemed to provide a real emotional leader on the field. In this particular game you didn’t get much of a look at the potential replacements for Lee and Moore, although I know K-State feels pretty good about the options on hand. Still, it’s going to take some serious work for K-State to fill in the holes created along the front seven with the departures of Willis, Moore and Lee. Filling these voids should be the biggest concern to K-State fans heading into the season. I think it would be a good sign to see an athletic newcomer like Da'Quan Patton earn his way into the lineup and possibly provide a difference maker in the middle of the defense.
Lots of interesting stuff in the secondary. First, and by no means trying to be disrespectful, but I do believe K-State will be able to replace Dante Barnett. While he was a heady, valuable player, Barnett didn’t seem to be quite the difference maker he was before his injury. Kendall Adams was very up and down in this game, making an incredible interception on a deep throw that couldn’t have been played better. He’d go from that, however, to not making any sort of play on the ball on another long completion he had perfect coverage on, to ultimately getting lost in coverage when Trevor Knight would scramble. I do feel confident Adams will improve his consistency with the added experience and has a chance to be a very solid player.
K-State has tons of reasons to be excited about cornerback. I’m not sure the last time I saw a team avoid a corner more for an entire game than A&M did D.J. Reed. I counted three throws in his direction, one of which the play was nullified due to an offsides penalty - and Reed intercepted A&M on that play. Cre Moore has work to do, for sure, but he’s more physically gifted and athletic than anybody else the Wildcats used in that nickel/slot corner role in some time. Even Duke Shelly, who played very little in this game due to injury and had a sophomore slump, made a great play on a deep throw to the end zone late in the third quarter that could have given A&M the lead back going into the final quarter. This has a chance to be the best trio of corners at K-State in a long, long time. What I don’t like, however, is Reed being used as a return man. Yes, he’s explosive and a difference maker in the return game, but there’s not a ton of depth at cornerback – especially compared to that at running back and wide receiver. I don’t doubt he’s the best return man on the team, but I’m not sure he’s so much better than Pringle/Heath/Zuber/Silmon/Dalvin Warmack, etc., that it’s worth risking him in that role.
Ultimately, it was a fun game to re-watch a couple of times in preparation for the 2017 season. If anything, I left it a little more encouraged about what we can expect from K-State this upcoming season – especially when adding a true difference maker like Barnes back into the mix.
One good thing: A&M clearly thought Reed was an elite cornerback – as the Aggies had a month to prepare for this game and obviously came away with the belief he wasn’t even worth challenging.
One scary thing: Aside from Reed, Willis and Moore were easily the next two best players on defense for K-State in this game. How will the Wildcats replace those two and Lee in their front seven?
Final Thought: This K-State team easily looked like a Top 25 team, completely justifying the Wildcats’ preseason No. 19 ranking considering just how much talent returns from this group.
- WR
- TE
- S
- OT
- S
- WR
- PRO
- WDE
- S
- OLB
